Wildfire Prediction in British Columbia Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models: A Data-Driven Framework
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Wildfires pose a growing threat to ecosystems, infrastructure, and public safety, particularly in the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada. In recent years, the frequency, severity, and scale of wildfires in BC have increased significantly, largely due to climate change, human activity, and changing land use patterns. This study presents a comprehensive, data-driven approach to wildfire prediction, leveraging advanced machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques. A high-resolution dataset was constructed by integrating five years of wildfire incident records from the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS) with ERA5 reanalysis climate data. The final dataset comprises more than 3.6 million spatiotemporal records and 148 environmental, meteorological, and geospatial features. Six feature selection techniques were evaluated, and five predictive models—Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and an RNN + LSTM—were trained and compared. The CatBoost model achieved the highest predictive performance with an accuracy of 93.4%, F1-score of 92.1%, and ROC-AUC of 0.94, while Random Forest achieved an accuracy of 92.6%. The study identifies key environmental variables, including surface temperature, humidity, wind speed, and soil moisture, as the most influential predictors of wildfire occurrence. These findings highlight the potential of data-driven AI frameworks to support early warning systems and enhance operational wildfire management in British Columbia.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it