A unified joint modelling of zero-inflated longitudinal measurements and time-to-event outcomes with applications to HIV and colorectal cancer data
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this manuscript, we develop a unified joint modelling and estimation framework for zero-inflated count and longitudinal semi-continuous data, with a focus on models structured around the exponential family and two-part hurdle formulations. We first review and synthesize existing longitudinal hurdle models, identifying a common structure across diverse approaches. Motivated by this foundation, we introduce novel joint models that integrate semi-continuous longitudinal outcomes with time-to-event data, and propose new methods for dynamic prediction in the presence of semi-continuous outcomes. To facilitate flexible estimation and inference across this class of models, we propose a Bayesian estimation strategy based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We have implemented these methods in the R package UHJM (available at https://github.com/tbaghfalaki/UHJM), providing accessible tools for parameter estimation and risk prediction. The utility of our framework is demonstrated through simulation studies and two real-world applications characterized by excess zeros.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it