Economic Policy Uncertainty and Matching in Venture Capital Markets: Evidence from China’s Venture Capital Market
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on matching between venture capital institutions (VCs) and startups. Working on data from the venture capital sector in China between 2002 and 2021, our analysis reveals that EPU notably improves the matching level between VCs and startups. EPU has a stronger positive impact on matching for VCs deeply integrated into China’s economy and for mid-to-late-stage startups. We further show that EPU enhances matching by encouraging syndicated investments. Moreover, VCs’ risk-taking positively moderates the impact of EPU on matching. Lastly, EPU exerts a negative impact on VCs’ exit outcomes, but improved matching between VC firms and startups helps alleviate this impact.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it