Sea-Level Constraints on the Amplitude and Source Distribution of Meltwater Pulse 1A
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
During the last deglaciation, sea levels rose as ice sheets retreated. This climate transition was punctuated by periods of more intense melting; the largest and most rapid of these – Meltwater Pulse 1A – occurred about 14,500 years ago, with rates of sea level rise reaching approximately 4 m per century1-3. Such rates of rise suggest ice-sheet instability, but the meltwater sources are poorly constrained, thus limiting our understanding of the causes and impacts of the event4-7. In particular, geophysical modelling studies constrained by tropical sea-level records1,8,9 suggest an Antarctic contribution of more than seven meters, whereas most reconstructions from Antarctica indicate no substantial change in ice-sheet volume around the time of Meltwater Pulse 1A10. Here we use a glacial isostatic adjustment model to reinterpret tropical sea level reconstructions from Barbados2, the Sunda Shelf3 and Tahiti1. According to our results, global mean sea level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A was between 8.6 and 14.6 metres (95% probability). As for the melt partitioning, we find an allowable contribution from Antarctica of either 4.1 to 10.0 m or 0 to 6.9 m (95% probability), using two recent estimates11,12 of the contribution from the North American ice sheets. We conclude that a significant contribution of melt from the Antarctic ice sheets is not necessarily required to explain the documented sea level rise during Meltwater Pulse 1A.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it