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Record W6925220220 · doi:10.17605/osf.io/ad7bq

Personality-Politician Conjoint Experiment

2021· other· en· W6925220220 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueOSF Preprints (OSF Preprints) · 2021
Typeother
Languageen
FieldArts and Humanities
TopicHistorical Studies in Central America
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPersonalityConscientiousnessAgreeablenessBig Five personality traitsCompetence (human resources)Test (biology)Personality test

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Which traits affect a politician's success and electability? Scholars have examined several attributes such as gender, race, or social class (e.g., Carnes and Lupu 2016; Hainmueller et al. 2014; Hobolt and Rodon 2020; Schwarz and Coppock 2020). To a lesser extent, personal characteristics have been examined. For instance, Druckman and colleagues (2004) investigate the effect of competence and sociability. Personality has also been in the center of literature in psychology and political science to understand how specific traits can influence citizens' preferences (e.g., Aichholzer and Willmann 2020; Caprara et al. 2003; Caprara and Zimbardo 2004, Nai et al. 2021). In this project, we analyze the effect of politician's personality on voters' preferences and attitudes. The design is built around the findings from the first part of the paper (observational study). Using a unique dataset with personality measures of citizens and incumbent politicians in Belgium, Canada, and Israel, we find that citizens prefer politicians with a high score for conscientiousness and emotional stability. Further, we observe that citizens tend to prefer politicians that are similar to them in terms of personality. Finally, we show that citizens' personality preferences are strongly similar to politicians' actual personalities. This experiment aims to complement these results by looking at the comparative effect of traits. We designed a conjoint analysis in Canada, Israel, and Belgium to test whether a party leader's personality can influence the voter's choice and preferences.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Other · Consensus signal: Other
Teacher disagreement score0.267
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.002
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.9860.720

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.034
GPT teacher head0.263
Teacher spread0.228 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it