Data and R code for: 'Marine resources alter tundra food web dynamics by subsidizing a terrestrial predator on the sea ice'
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This repository contains all of the data and R code needed to reproduce the analyses for: "Marine resources alter Arctic tundra food web dynamics by subsidizing a terrestrial predator on the sea ice" by Johnson-Bice et al.<br>Predator use of resource subsidies can strengthen top-down effects on prey when predators respond numerically to subsidies. Although allochthonous subsidies are generally transported along natural gradients, consumers can cross ecosystem boundaries to acquire subsidies, thereby linking disparate ecosystems. In coastal Arctic ecosystems, terrestrial predators can easily cross into the marine environment (sea ice) during winter, which is a foraging strategy that Arctic foxes (<i>Vulpes lagopus</i>) use to access marine subsidies – largely seal carrion leftover from polar bear (<i>Ursus maritimus</i>) kills – especially when rodent abundance is low. Terrestrial predator use of marine subsidies may strengthen the top-down control of tundra food webs, but this hypothesis had remained untested. We took an ecosystem-level approach towards evaluating tundra food web dynamics at the terrestrial–marine interface by assessing: (i) how winter environmental conditions affect rodent abundance and marine subsidy availability, (ii) the responses of the Arctic fox population to this winter food variability, and (iii) the subsequent effects of Arctic foxes on the reproductive success of other tundra prey (Canada geese [<i>Branta canadensis interior</i>]). Arctic foxes responded numerically to rodent abundance and marine subsidy availability, which were positively related to greater snow and sea ice persistence, respectively. Canada goose reproductive success, in turn, was negatively related to Arctic fox abundance. Long-term trends in Canada goose reproduction and snow persistence on the tundra also indicate an ongoing phenological mismatch between nesting initiation and the onset of spring. Our results reveal short-term apparent competition between rodents and geese through a shared predator, Arctic foxes, which contrasts with prior studies evaluating rodent–goose–predator relationships. Moreover, we establish a link between tundra and sea ice food webs by demonstrating seal availability has a negative indirect effect on goose reproduction via carrion provisioning from polar bears to Arctic foxes, both of which are undergoing long-term population declines evidently driven by climate-related changes in prey abundance and availability. Given the importance of the winter environment in mediating these trophic interactions, we contextualize our study within ongoing climate change and highlight the vulnerability of this likely widespread terrestrial–marine linkage in a warming Arctic.terrestrial–marine linkage in a warming Arctic.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.067 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it