Additional figures for article <b>Shifts in native tree species distributions in Europe under climate change</b>
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Additional results to the article entitled <b>Shifts in native tree species distributions in Europe under climate change</b>In the article we developed species distribution models for 20 tree species, and we predicted their climatic optimum under four scenarios developed for the 6th IPCC Assessment Report, i.e. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These scenarios reflect uncertainties in possible trajectories of climate change mitigation<sup>16</sup>. We chose four scenarios: SSP126 (sustainability, the most optimistic scenario reflecting RCP2.6 from 5<sup>th</sup> report), SSP245 (middle of the road, moderate scenario reflecting RCP4.5), SSP370 (regional rivalry, not used in the 5<sup>th</sup> report), and SSP585 (fossil-fuel based development, the worst possible scenario, reflecting RCP8.5), and two timelines: 2041-2060 and 2061-2080. For each SSP and timeline, we downloaded four versions, based on four (among eight available) different global circulation models (GCMs): IPSL-CM6A-LR (France), MRI-ESM2-0 (Japan), CanESM5 (Canada), and BCC-CSM2-MR (China), to reflect the uncertainty among GCMs<sup>62–64</sup>, and to account for GCMs developed in different countries.In the set of figures for each tree species we procided four sets of maps:(averaged_figures.zip) Projected habitat suitability in Europe, expressed as continuous variable averaged across four GCMs for each RCP - files with _averaged in the name (uncert.zip) Uncertainty of prediction across four GCMs for each RCP and timeframe expressed by SD of predicted habitat suitability for each pixel - files with _uncert in the name(shifts_maps.zip) Discretized current and projected range in Europe.<b> </b>Explanations: green+orange – current potential distribution, green – persistence, orange – future range contraction, blue – future range expansion, grey – still unsuitable; files with _sppyears in the name(geotiffs.zip) geotiff. files with current climatic suitability (curr.cont - for continuous variables and curr.dist for discretized), predicted continuous climatic suitability (averaged across GCMs), and shifts in distributions (values: -2 = range expansion, -1 = persistence, 0 = no change/absence, 1 = range contraction). All files are in folders for particular tree species<br>
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.905 | 0.009 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it