Ham petrol fiyat değişimlerinin makro iktisadi değişkenlerle ilişkisi: Bir zaman serisi analizi
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
HAM PETROL FİYAT DEĞİŞİMLERİNİN\nMAKRO İKTİSADİ DEĞİŞKENLERLE İLİŞKİSİ:\nBİR ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ\n\nBu çalışmada, ham petrol fiyatı ile Reel GSYİH, Reel Döviz Kuru, Fiyat İndeks gibi belli başlı makro iktisadi değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ampirik olarak test edilmiştir. Petrol fiyat şokunun iktisadi faaliyetler (mali, üretim ve finansal) üzerindeki etkisini araştırmak için petrol ihracatçısı ve ithalatçısı OECD üyesi ülkeler (Japonya, Kanada, Meksika, Türkiye) ile petrol ihracatçısı Ortadoğu ülkelerinin (S.Arabistan, İran, Kuveyt, B.A.E) 1970- 2008 dönemindeki yıllık verileri kullanılarak, yapısal VAR modeli uygulanmıştır. Buna göre petrol fiyat şokunun gelişmekte olan ülkeler ve petrol ihracatçıları üzerinde etkisi varken, gelişmiş ülke ekonomileri üzerindeki etkisi göreli olarak azdır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, petrol fiyat şoklarının Arabistan, Kuveyt ve Türkiye ve Meksika gibi ülkelerin mali ve finansal yapılarının; İran’ın mali ve üretim yapısının; Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri’nin üretim yapısının ve Japonya’nın da mali yapısının etkilendiğini gösterirken; Kanada ekonomisi üzerinde etkisi olmadığına işaret etmektedir.\nABSTRACT\nTHE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRUDE OIL PRICE EXCHANGE AND\nMACROECONOMIC VARIABLES: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS\n\nThis study has analysed the empirical long-term relationships between crude oil prices and several key macroeconomic variables, such as Real GDP, Real Exchange Rate and Price Index. By using yearly data for the period from 1970 to 2008, the structural VAR model was applied to examine the impacts of an oil price shock on economic activities (fiscal, output and financial) of both the OECD countries (Japan, Canada, Mexico, Turkey), which are either oil importer or oil exporter, and the oil exporter countries from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates). This study has showed that the effects of oil price shocks had occured on the fiscal and financial structures of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Turkey and Mexico; on the fiscal and output structures in Iran; on the output structure in the United Arab Emirates and on the fiscal structure in Japan. Yet, oil price shocks had no significant effect on the Canadian economy. The results of the study illustrate that changing oil prices affect the economies of both the developing countries and the oil exporter countries, while no comparable effect on the economy of a developed country like Canada.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.011 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.035 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it