Association of Fall-Related Injuries and Different Diagnoses in Older Adults of Ontario: A Machine Learning Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Falls are the leading cause of injury-related hospitalizations among older adults in Canada. This study aimed to identify the most informative diagnostic categories associated with fall-related injuries (FRIs) using three machine learning algorithms: decision tree, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting tree (XGBoost). Secondary data from two Ontario health administrative databases (NACRS, DAD) covering the period 2006-2015 were analyzed. Older adults (aged ≥ 65 years) who sought treatment for FRIs in emergency departments (ED) or hospitals, as indicated by Canadian version of the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10-CA) codes for falls and injuries, were included in the study. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F1 score measures were calculated for each model. A total of 631,339 ED admissions and 304,495 hospitalizations were recorded due to FRIs. The random forest model demonstrated the highest sensitivity and accuracy in both datasets. Dyspnea and secondary malignant neoplasm of liver and intrahepatic bile duct were the most informative ICD-10-CA code and disease for FRIs among older adults admitted to ED and hospitals. These findings indicate that machine learning models can also be used to study FRIs as they are capable of handling large datasets and providing a better than 60% accuracy. Also, diagnostic categories linked to FRIs have a potential to enhance healthcare providers ‘ability to prevent FRIs in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".