Indonesia Economic Quarterly, September 2009 : Clearing Skies
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the first half of 2009, \n Indonesia's economy has established a solid recovery \n from late last year. Quarterly growth has accelerated since \n the start of 2009, after stalling in the final quarter of \n 2008, although the year-on-year growth rate has continued to \n slow, recording 4.0 per cent in the year to Q2. This trend \n of a gradual recovery is projected to continue into 2011. \n Indonesia's recovery coincides with an improved \n external environment. Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) \n outcomes across its major export destinations were better \n than expected and most trading partner's exited \n recession by mid-year. International prices of many of \n Indonesia's exports have recovered much of their late \n 2008 falls. These developments have supported \n Indonesia's economy, with exports recovering faster \n than imports. Domestic consumption continued to contribute \n strongly to growth in the second quarter. In the first \n quarter, large amounts of spending by campaign teams for the \n parliamentary election lifted private consumption. \n Indonesia's financial markets have continued to \n strengthen through Q2, generally by more than markets \n elsewhere in the region. The rupiah has continued to \n appreciate against the weakening USD, although at a slowing \n rate, and stabilized around 10,000 per USD by early \n September. The stock market also performed strongly in Q2, \n rising over 20 per cent from late May to early September. By \n mid-June, yields on sovereign rupiah bonds had returned to \n early 2008 levels, while the spread on Indonesian government \n USD bonds had the global emerging market average. From late \n June to September, local currency bond yields have remained \n broadly stable, while spreads on USD bonds have fallen \n another percentage point. These improved market conditions \n have allowed the government to continue financing its budget \n through the bond market, accessing funds for longer terms \n and at lower yields.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.018 | 0.087 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it