Green ammonia: optimising production and quantifying its potential as an energy vector
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The environmental imperative to achieve net-zero emissions quickly to minimise the rise in average global temperature rise due to global warming is clear. To achieve this, variable renewable energy (VRE) needs to substitute existing energy sources in the polluting sectors: electricity, heat, transport and industry. The integration of VRE sources to high levels of penetration however, is difficult: unlike most commodities, supply and demand must be in equilibrium at each moment in time, from the sub-second to inter-annual. This study quantifies the flexibility required by a power network to integrate additional VRE sources as a function of the magnitude and duration of the electrical energy storage required. The original energy storage requirement modelling tool (ESRMT) calculates: 1) the storage magnitude index (SMI), 2) the storage duration index (SDI) and 3) the storage size required. This quantifies the impact of VRE penetration, the mix of VRE sources and the application of other flexibility methods on the storage requirements. The ESRMT is used to consider locations in Japan, the UK, Canada and Australia and shows that, while requirements do increase with VRE penetration, the magnitude and type is location specific and highly dependent on the mix of VRE sources. Medium and long-term storage required at high VRE penetration are difficult to mitigate. The chemical storage of electrical energy, using ammonia, is a promising solution due to its favourable chemical and technical properties. The decarbonisation of the ammonia production is itself an environmental imperative as it accounts for 1.3% of global carbon dioxide emissions and supports over 48% of the global population through nitrogen based fertilisers. The developed islanded ammonia production modelling tool (IAPMT) optimises the mix of VRE sources, plant design and operation to minimise the levelised cost of ammonia (LCOA) at any given location. The IAPMT is used to consider ammonia production at 534 locations in 70 countries. It shows that at the best location a LCOA of $473/tonne is currently achievable, but this will decrease to $310/tonne by 2030. Decarbonised production will be highly competitive with conventional production by 2030. Assuming its use for seasonal storage, these LCOA estimates mean that the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) of power-toammonia-to-power of $252/MWh by 2030.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it