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Record W7111283681 · doi:10.1002/aepp.70048

Temperature and Farm Labor in Nigeria

2025· article· en· W7111283681 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.

Bibliographic record

VenueApplied Economic Perspectives and Policy · 2025
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldAgricultural and Biological Sciences
TopicClimate change impacts on agriculture
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Alberta
Fundersnot available
KeywordsLabor demandWagePanel dataNonfarm payrollsAgricultureClimate changeFarm workersDeveloping country

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

ABSTRACT We estimate the impact of temperature shocks on the composition of farm labor in rural Nigeria using a nationally representative household panel survey. Leveraging plausibly exogenous year‐to‐year variation in growing season temperatures, we find that warmer temperatures significantly alter farm labor composition, prompting a substantial shift away from hired labor toward family labor. Interestingly, the displaced hired labor is not easily absorbed into non‐farm sectors in the short term; instead, high temperatures also reduce household participation in local non‐farm wage employment. We further provide suggestive evidence that households reallocate labor in response to temperature shocks because extreme heat renders reliance on external labor economically less viable. In particular, heat stress decreases farm productivity, lowering marginal returns to labor and incentivizing farmers to substitute costly hired labor with household labor. These findings underscore the multifaceted threat that climate change poses to rural livelihoods, reducing not only crop yields but also distorting labor allocation in ways that may further constrain farm productivity.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.924
Threshold uncertainty score0.353

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.007
GPT teacher head0.241
Teacher spread0.234 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it