Using Reinforcement Learning to Provide Decision Support in Multi-Domain Mass Evacuation Operations
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we study a scenario in which a large number of individuals in various levels of medical distress are stranded at a remote location, such as in the Arctic, and must be evacuated. Set within this context, we examine a multi-domain operation in which the evacuation of individuals occurs via one of two ways, either by helicopter or by ship, each with their own capacity constraints. The aim of this research is to determine a decision policy whose objective is to maximize the number of survivors. This is achieved by seeking a policy that throughout the operation effectively coordinates the selection of those individuals to be evacuated via helicopter and those to be evacuated via ship. Our contributions are twofold. First, we formulate the multi-domain mass evacuation operation as a Markov Decision Process. Second, due to the fact that the curse of dimensionality renders exact methods not applicable, we employ an Artificial Intelligence framework, namely, Reinforcement Learning (RL), also known as Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) within operations research, to learn a near-optimal policy. Using a value function approximation based on state aggregation, we design an ADP algorithm to learn a policy within the context of a representative planning scenario. We then apply this policy across a range of test scenarios and compare the outcomes to those achieved using non-coordinated benchmark policies. Although our learned policy does not outperform all benchmarks, our results demonstrate how Artificial Intelligence may be used to evaluate candidate policies and provide decision support in multi-domain operations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it