Bibliographic record
Abstract
The world is currently using up oil at somewhere between four and nine times the rate it is being discovered. The 'depletionists' (or peak theorists) maintain that a sudden downturn in oil output is imminent, resulting in sharp prices increases that will lead to economic and social turmoil. In contrast, the anti-depletionists (represented by international energy agencies, major producers and the oil companies) is that rather than having used half the world's oil reserves, we have used closer to one quarter and that the outlook to 2030 represents no cause for concern. Oil supplies, it is argued, will keep pace with demand, despite the forecast growth in countries such as China. Prices, which the antidepletionists argue signal an impending shortage of oil, have not shown a long-term upward trend. While there have been dramatic price rises in the past, these have reflected market control by OPEC countries rather then a gradually exhausting resource. This paper reviews the main areas of debate between the depletionists and antidepletionists, with particular emphasis on the policy implications of both approaches. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E211825.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.028 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.018 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.067 | 0.015 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".