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Record W827525316

Are we running out of oil

2004· article· en· W827525316 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueTransport Research Forum · 2004
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnergy
TopicGlobal Energy and Sustainability Research
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPacePeak oilEconomic shortageChinaRecessionEconomicsQuarter (Canadian coin)Oil reservesNatural resource economicsResource (disambiguation)Oil pricePetroleumFossil fuelEconomic policyEconomyMacroeconomicsMonetary economicsEngineeringPolitical scienceGeographyClimate changeGovernment (linguistics)
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The world is currently using up oil at somewhere between four and nine times the rate it is being discovered. The 'depletionists' (or peak theorists) maintain that a sudden downturn in oil output is imminent, resulting in sharp prices increases that will lead to economic and social turmoil. In contrast, the anti-depletionists (represented by international energy agencies, major producers and the oil companies) is that rather than having used half the world's oil reserves, we have used closer to one quarter and that the outlook to 2030 represents no cause for concern. Oil supplies, it is argued, will keep pace with demand, despite the forecast growth in countries such as China. Prices, which the antidepletionists argue signal an impending shortage of oil, have not shown a long-term upward trend. While there have been dramatic price rises in the past, these have reflected market control by OPEC countries rather then a gradually exhausting resource. This paper reviews the main areas of debate between the depletionists and antidepletionists, with particular emphasis on the policy implications of both approaches. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E211825.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.605
Threshold uncertainty score0.917

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.074
GPT teacher head0.367
Teacher spread0.293 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it