Examining the Effects of Tax Increases on Discount and Premium Cigarettes in Canada, 2001-2005
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Rationale: Tax policy has been used as an instrument of health for many years. Since the late 1970's increased excise taxes and duties, at federal and provincial/territorial levels, have resulted in decreased demand and lower cigarette sales in Canada. Nevertheless, in recent years, Canadian cigarette manufacturers have introduced lower priced cigarette brands, known as discount brands, in response to a number of factors. The market share of discount cigarettes increased from 2% to over 40% between 2002 and 2005. This suggests that the magnitude of the effects of tax increases may not be as large as predicted by the literature. Objective: The objective of this paper is to determine the effect of tax changes on the overall demand for cigarettes, as well as the separate effects and on discount and premium cigarettes. Methods: The data employed in this paper include monthly wholesale cigarettes sales and prices, by brand, for each Canadian province, federal and provincial taxes per carton of cigarettes, and per-capita disposable income for 2002 to 2005. Three separate models were estimated - one model for overall cigarette sales, and separate models for discount and premium cigarette sales. Monthly cigarette sales were used as the dependant variable in each model with discount and premium cigarette prices, cigarette taxes, and disposable income as the independent variables. Due to provincial heterogeneity province was employed as a random effect in all three models. All variables were converted to logs allowing the coefficients to be interpreted as estimates of price elasticity. Results: The tax variable was significant in each equation. In the equations for overall cigarette sales and premium cigarette sales, taxes and quantities of cigarette sold were significant and inversely related. The tax elasticity in the overall market equation was -0.54, consistent with previous research, while in the regular cigarette market equation, the tax elasticity was -0.91. In other words, as taxes increased sales of premium cigarettes decreased at a faster rate than the market as a whole. Consistent with this result is the finding that tax elasticity on discount cigarettes was 1.37 implying that as taxes increased, sales of discount cigarettes also increased. Conclusions: These results provide further evidence that, in Canada, recent increases in taxes have resulted in smokers switching from regular priced cigarettes to discount priced cigarettes, thus mitigating the possible effects of tax increases. In addition, these results provide an indication of the magnitude of the impact of tax increases on smokers' behaviour.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,006 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,004 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,003 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».