The Shale Revolution: Its Impact and Implications for India

Production of shale oil and gas had begun in North America around 2007; however, its full impact began to be felt only around 2011. Its advent has been likened to that of the sighting of a 'Black Swan', an event that is rare, unusual and unexpected, and which is transformational of the ways in which the world lives and believes.1 Understandably, therefore, it has come to be described as a 'revolution'.2 Nearly every one concurs that the shale revolution is to here stay. This essay examines two major issues associated with the shale revolution which bear scholarly significance:(i) its meaning in terms of global energy security, and the structural change that this revolution is bringing about in the global balance of power, the prospects of economic development, and climate change negotiations; and(ii) its impact and implications for India's energy security, besides whatever else it may hold in terms of geo-political and economic opportunities.One Hundred Years of GasThere is no gainsaying that shale oil and gas is transforming North America in some very meaningful ways. Its full impact, which would only be understood in hindsight, will be known only around 2030. However, scores of influential geo-political and economic analyses are pointing out the way shale revolution is beginning to rebalance the global political order in favour of the USA. A caveat needs to be added here: the shale revolution of USA cannot be replicated elsewhere for technological and organisational reasons, except in the case of Canada. In other words, other countries may have shale resources, but they will not be able to follow the US lead without its technological and organisational assistance.3The shale revolution has also gravely dented the 'declinist' thesis regarding the USA. 'The Age of Gas could make the United States the world's leading geopolitical power into the new century'.4 In his State of the Union Address 2012, President Barrack Obama promised the 'supply of natural gas that can last America nearly 100 years'; two years later, delivering the 5th Union Address, he reminded that the 'energy strategy I announced a few years ago is working, and today, America is closer to energy independence than we have been in decades'. 'The shadow of the crisis has passed', as America has risen from recession for reasons, among others, 'a booming energy production'. At his sixth address, Obama declared that the USA has 'grown more self reliant on its own energy reserves'.5There might be some exaggeration in all this; but the shale revolution is not a 'hoax'; and neither, a 'Ponzi scheme disguised as an energy revolution'.6 Of course, projections and forecasts differ widely, and making policy recommendations remains somewhat hazardous. The shale revolution still being in its initial stage, 'its policy implications are poorly understood and the future trajectories of that production growth are highly uncertain.'7 With all scepticism taken into account, the shale revolution is here to stay well into the 2030s and, as production rises, its impact on global and regional supply and prices are being felt strongly.The shift is paradigmatic: the arrival of non-conventional hydrocarbons is changing the assumptions upon which states and markets have worked their energy relations for the past half a century.8 Two assumptions have shaped national energy security policies since the 1970s:(i) oil is a key strategic resource, and guaranteed access to it at affordable prices needs to be ensured; and(ii) that the energy apocalypse is not far away. The final count-down in depletion and exhaustion of oil has begun. In the not-so-distant future, more oil might be available in the global market but at an unaffordable price, especially by the developing countries.Working on these assumptions, all countries - especially the big and rich consumers - define their energy security, and then compete to guarantee access to energy resources at an affordable price. …

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