Recovery of the Global Economy in the Second Half of 2009
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The world economy has overcome the cyclical trough. On the back of extensive economic stimulus programs, most economies returned to positive growth rates in the second half of 2009, with emerging countries taking the lead. The rate of the recovery, however, diverges strongly across the different regions. Not only the emerging Asian countries grew at a vigorous pace; the U.S. economy, too, posted healthy quarter-on-quarter growth at a rate last seen six years ago. Yet, recent confidence indicators suggest that economic growth will continue at a slower pace. While the world economic recovery gained momentum in the fourth quarter of 2009, the development of economic activity in the euro area remained below expectations. In comparison with the previous quarter, the economy of the single currency area grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009, with growth driven exclusively by the positive contribution of net exports. Euro area domestic demand is unlikely to give growth a genuine boost in the quarters to come. Current forecasts generally point to a gradual recovery of economic activity in the euro area, which will, however, be weaker than the U.S. revival. Euro area HICP inflation returned to positive levels in November 2009. This was due primarily to base effects stemming from commodity prices. The disinflation process of core items, however, is continuing. Given the sluggish recovery in economic activity, the annual core inflation rate fell to a record low of 0.8% in February 2010. The latest forecasts predict that there will be no risks to price stability until the end of 2011. Especially thanks to a slight recovery in international demand, the Central, Eastern and Southeastern (CESEE) EU Member States entered a period of economic stabilization in the second half of 2009, recording – once again – moderately positive average growth rates (on a quarterly basis). However, cyclical developments still vary significantly across the countries of the region. The economic downturn caused current account balances to improve throughout the entire region and brought down inflation rates in several countries. After undergoing the deepest and longest recession in post-war history, Austria registered moderate economic growth in the second half of 2009, supported by the revival of international economic activity, the Austrian government stimulus packages and the inventory cycle. According to recent results of the short-term economic indicator of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), growth is set to remain stable. Real GDP is expected to grow by 0.5% in both the first and the second quarters of 2010 (seasonally and working day adjusted, quarter on quarter). For the entire year 2010 the OeNB expects a real GDP growth rate of about 1½%.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».