Simulating a Land Development Planning Process through Agent-Based Modeling

IntroductionLike most urban centers in North America, the City of Calgary has been experiencing steady population and unprecedented land-cover growth over the past six decades due to the strong Alberta economy, natural increase, and net migration (City of Calgary 2009).Between 1951 and 1961 the population exploded by 93% from 129,060 to 249,641 inhabitants and the city's jurisdiction swelled by 276% from 104 to 392 km 2 .In each decade since, the population has increased by approximately 35% to the current population of 1,043,000 inhabitants and the city's municipal lands have expanded by 14% to the current area of 745 km 2 (Applied History Research Group 1997-2001; City of Calgary 2008).The City of Calgary's " Population Picture" predicts a population of 1.6 million by 2037 and just fewer than two million inhabitants by the 22 nd century (City of Calgary 2009).If these population predictions are correct and planning and land development decisions continue to be made based on current planning policy and developers' self-interest, the City of Calgary will continue to sprawl and housing costs will continue to climb.This competition and cost increase for land within the City of Calgary force young families unable to afford a house in the city to purchase outside of the city and commute to their place of employment.It also encourages retirees wanting to get away from the city to move out to the country.This creates demands on towns located in the vicinity of Calgary to accommodate this net migration.This is the case for the Town of Strathmore, located at about 40 km east of Calgary on the Trans-Canada Highway.It currently has a population of 11,335 inhabitants and covers approximately 15.5 km 2 .The population is expected to reach 56,731 inhabitants by 2056 and to cover 26.8 km 2 , an increase of 38% in population and 12% in area per decade (Brown and Associates Planning Group 2008).Several environmental, social and economic problems are associated to population growth, including: (a) increased demand on and cost for resources such as land and water; (b) increased intensity of use on and competition for land; (c) change in settlement patterns; (d) increased interaction, and conflict or required cooperation with adjacent municipalities; (e) increased demand on existing infrastructure, such as roads, utility distribution, collection and treatment facilities; (f) increased cost for new infrastructure like roads, utilities, schools, and other community facilities; (g) increased environmental ground, water and air pollution; and (h) increased health and emergency costs.Some of these costs can be avoided; www.intechopen.comSimulating a Land Development Planning Process through Agent-Based Modeling 417 more decisions.First, the landowner and/ or developer attend a pre-application meeting with the city planning authority to discuss the proposed redesignation.Then, the landowner/ developer voluntarily presents the plan to the neighbours and local community association.The landowner/ developer submits the application for land-use redesignation and outline plan that he has worked on with professional planning and engineering consultants and sub-consultants, to the planning authority.Then, the application is circulated to the various City departments, the community association, the Alderman, and any applicable special interest groups and a notice is posted.The various planning authorities review the application and the comments and make a recommendation to City Council.Notices are sent to adjacent owners, a sign is posted, and an advertisement is placed in the local newspapers regarding a public hearing on the application.Finally, the proposed land-use redesignation and outline plan application are presented in a public hearing and the City Council makes its decision.As one can see, this process involves many stakeholders including: the landowners, the developers and their engineering and planning consultants, the city/ town authorities and their various departments, the neighbours and other citizens, the community associations, the city/ town political figures, the utility providers, and other special interest groups.One can imagine each stakeholder or group of stakeholders having different visions, opinions and interest in the proposed development.The authorities must also have in mind the broader picture and overall goals of the city/ town itself, and attempt to see how the proposed land development fits into the future plans of the community.Throughout the process, communication occurs between different stakeholders on many occasions, both within an organization and with other organizations.Communication also occurs at many formal and informal levels, including: pre-application meetings with city/ town authorities, meetings with neighbours and community associations, meetings with private planning and engineering firms, open houses, application reviews by authorities and the public, decisions by city/ town authorities, public hearings, and possible appeals.Prior to these communication sessions, stakeholders are trying to devise ways to fit their goals into the proposed development.During the sessions, negotiations take place to balance goals and resolve issues and hopefully make decisions.As stakeholders make decisions, they might weigh social need, environmental impact, economic advantages or disadvantages and political support or opposition of a proposed land development.Municipal and inter-municipal planners use various methods and tools to create a municipal plan that best suits the ideals, values and vision of the community in terms of future social need, economic feasibility, and environmental sustainability.These methods include forecasting based on present conditions using historical data, past success and failures.Some of the tools include statistical census analyses, and community economic models to predict employment creation.The growth plans and planning policy developed for a municipality set the direction of the community growth, which may leave limited choice for developers and citizens.One of the outcomes, which is the focus of this research, is a decision that changes land use allowing for development to occur on a particular parcel of land.Despite the array of methods and tools available, these decisions are still often made in the face of uncertainty.The central issue addressed here is that town planners have a limited, although improving, ability to forecast the cumulative effect of individual decisions made by stakeholders having different goals on the overall environment over which they How to referenceIn order to correctly reference this scholarly work, feel free to copy and paste the following:

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