Recovery of Industrial Activity – No Turnaround as Yet in Construction and the Labour Market
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
With the global economic climate improving, activity is picking up in the domestic manufacturing sector. The WIFO business survey for the second quarter indicates a marked brightening-up of production expectations. Domestic demand, on the other hand, is still subdued. Employment is below, the number of job-seekers significantly above the year-earlier level. The WIFO business survey for the second quarter 2002 confirms the cyclical turnaround in manufacturing industry. Production expectations have rebounded strongly from the trough in the fourth quarter 2001, with the balance of positive and negative judgements swinging from –2.7 to +8.3 percentage points. As is typical for a nascent recovery, the business climate has improved most in the sectors of basic and intermediate goods (iron and steel, foundries) and of investment goods (machine tools, electronic equipment, vehicles). Actual data for output and demand only go as far as the beginning of the year; they show a substantial decline in manufacturing output in January and February (–5½ percent according to the production index), while goods exports in January (+1¾ percent in nominal terms) and wholesale turnover in the first two months (+¾ percent on average at constant prices) were slightly higher than a year ago. The world economic climate is turning more positive. In the USA, GDP expanded in the first quarter by 1½ percent year-on-year (following the European way of calculating), owing to massive spending by consumers and by public authorities. Still, the increase in industrial production and the present level of capacity utilisation are not yet providing major incentives for firms to step up investment. The recovery in the USA is having a positive impact also on the business climate in Europe. Firms and consumers see further developments notably more optimistic now than at the end of last year. A major dampening factor here is the persistent weakness of consumer and construction demand in Germany. In Austria, the pick-up in business activity is largely driven by exports, whereas domestic demand is still weak, as witnessed also by the slump in imports (down by 2¼ percent year-on-year in nominal terms in the fourth quarter 2001, and by 6¼ percent in January). Private household demand should increase slightly, due in part to gains in disposable income. Contractual wages have been up by 2.4 percent in March, ½ percentage point more than the rate of inflation of 1.9 percent. Retail sales edged up by 0.9 percent in volume early this year, supported also by an excellent winter season in tourism. Gross earnings from tourism services between November and March exceeded the year-earlier level by 7½ percent, while overnight stays rose by 3¼ percent. For the construction sector, production data do not yet signal a recovery. Nevertheless, the latest WIFO business survey points to a timid improvement in confidence. The number of construction workers keeps falling markedly year-on-year. Employment is also down in large parts of manufacturing industry, where last year's fall in output is being reflected in the workforce and jobless figures with the usual time lag. A turnaround in the overall labour market situation is not yet visible. The total of actively employed is significantly lower than a year ago (–16, 000 in April), the unemployment figure considerably higher (+40, 000).
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,004 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Communication savante | 0,004 | 0,004 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,004 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,027 | 0,007 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».