An Environmental-Economic Evaluation of Hybrid Electric and Other Advanced Vehicles
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
<div class="htmlview paragraph">Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) and other advanced propulsion technologies offer greater fuel economy and lower pollutant and tailpipe emissions. Some experts regard the HEV technology as a practical, attractive solution to social concerns about fuel economy (and related fossil fuel conservation) and vehicle emissions. [<span class="xref">Maples 98</span>] The technology is practical; however, an HEV is more expensive to produce than a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE). In a world of limited resources and many petroleum users and emissions sources, the policy question is whether the best use of resources is to build HEV, to improve the fuel economy and lower emissions from other sources, or to devote the resources to other environmental projects.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">We compare the second generation (designed for the United States) Toyota Prius, to the conventional internal combustion engine Toyota Corolla. We examine both private (vehicle purchase price, maintenance, and fuel) and social (the pollutant [non-methane organic gases, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides] and carbon dioxide emissions) costs. For each of the vehicles, we evaluate lifetime vehicle exhaust emissions as well as upstream emissions from producing the fuel.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">We find that the second generation Prius is still not cost-effective in improving fuel-economy and lowering emissions. For the Prius to be attractive to U.S. consumers, the price of gasoline would have to be more than three times greater than the present level. To be attractive to regulators, the social value of abating tailpipe emissions would have to be 14 times greater than conventional values. Alternatively, the value of abating greenhouse gas emissions would have to be at least $220 per ton. We judge that any HEV would have a difficult time competing with the Corolla because of the Corolla's already high fuel economy and low pollutant emissions.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">We also examine the costs and benefits of making a GM Silverado pickup truck into a gasoline hybrid. Like the analysis of the Prius, we again find that the price of gasoline or social value of abating carbon dioxide would have to be higher than the base case values in order to payback the cost of converting the vehicle to an HEV. Finally, we find that at current gasoline prices and carbon dioxide valuation, a conventional vehicle would need to have a fuel economy of 13 mpg or less in order for a $4,000 cost of converting it to an HEV to get 30% better fuel economy would pay off. We conclude that HEV will not have significant sales unless fuel prices rise several-fold or unless regulators mandate them.</div>
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».