Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Following the boom in 2000, economic growth in Austria slowed down steadily and even turned negative in the third and fourth quarter of 2001. A fall in the seasonally adjusted real GDP over two successive quarters is the conventional definition of a recession in the economic debate. More accurately, however, the business cycle is defined by the variations in the utilisation of productive capacities or by the deviation from potential output (output gap). For practical purposes, this is often done by subtracting trend growth from the actual growth figure. The growth rates obtained in this way, nevertheless, exhibit a certain lead vis-a-vis the business cycle. The fact that the phenomenon of the cycle is reflected differently in the various economic time series is giving rise to different approaches in business cycle research. Disagreement among academics also extends to the issue of adequate adjustment for the trend component. Generally recognised and largely uncontroversial, on the other hand, is the importance of a high-quality adjustment procedure for seasonal and calendar effects, which has an important influence on the results of different cyclical measurement procedures. When applying the rule of two successive quarters of negative growth to Austrian GDP data corrected for seasonal effects and variations in the number of working days, only 5 recessions have occurred since 1954. In this case, no correction has been made for a trend growth component. Since trend growth was significantly higher between 1954 and the mid-1970s than in the following years, growth in that period remained positive even in periods of marked slowdown that may well be regarded as recessions in a cyclical sense. Thus, a procedure focussing exclusively on growth rates will give only an unprecise picture of the business cycle pattern. A further source of differences in dating turning points are the several possibilities to treat the irregular residual component resulting from the statistical analysis. In this way, still applying the two-negative-quarters rule, the number of recessions in Austria since 1954 is reduced to three, when adjustment is made only for seasonal and calendar effects, leaving the irregular component in the time series. A method of dating business cycles similar to the one developed by the NBER in the USA delivers no clear-cut results when applied to the Austrian data. The monthly series for employment, industrial production and wholesale turnover adjusted, for that purpose, for seasonal and calendar effects exhibited considerable variations in the high-frequency area, even after the irregular component had been eliminated. No firm conclusions on the dating of turning points could be drawn either, after the time series had been considerably smoothed using moving averages.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».