미주자유무역지대(FTAA)의 추진경과와 출범 전망

This paper aims to discuss the recent progress and prospects of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) negotiations. Thirty-four countries of the Americas gathered at the Third Summit of the America, held in April 2001, in Quebec, Canada, where they agreed to launch the FTAA in December 31, 2005. The FTAA is an expansion of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to include every country in Central America, South America and the Caribbean, with the exception of Cuba. Negotiations began right after the completion of NAFTA in 1994 and are to be completed by early 2005. The region-wide trend of economic liberalization and reform, the successful launching of NAFTA and MERCOSUR, and the revitalization of existing regional arrangements, such as the Andean Pact and the Central Common Market (CACM), are contributing factors to the recent progress of the FTAA negotiations. If it is launched in 2005 as planed, the FTAA will be the largest trade bloc comprising a market of 800 million populations and maintaining a GDP of $12 trillion dollars. Therefore, the FTAA is expected to provide profound impacts on the American region both economically and politically. It is no question that the FTAA will bring substantial economic benefits to participating countries. The FTAA is expected to reduce trade barriers, to enlarge the market size, and thus to facilitate economic growth in the American region. Still, given various obstacles, it remains uncertain whether FTAA negotiations will progress smoothly. Thirty-four countries which are currently participating in the FTAA negotiations differ significantly both in terms of their developmental stage of the economy and their size and industrial structure. As a consequence, these member countries have differing interests and positions toward various agenda of the FTAA negotiations, thus making it hard for them to reach a consensus and agreement. The successful progress of FTAA negotiations will be determined by a number of factors. The most crucial variable will be the leadership role of the United States. The experiences of the European Union show the importance of regional leader for successful regional integration. In fact, the slow progress of the FTAA negotiation under the Clinton administration can be largely attributed to its reluctant position and weak leadership on the issue of the FTAA. Since the current Bush administration has adopted a more active policy toward the FTAA and also controls the majority seats of the congress, in contrast to the Clinton government, President Bush seems to have a better chance to play the active leadership role toward the FTAA. Another crucial factor is the policy of the MERCOSUR and its leader Brazil toward the FTAA negotiations. The MERCOSUR members, especially Brazil, have shown an ambivalent attitude toward the FTAA. Brazil has been worried about the possibility that the FTAA may undermine her domestic industries, and its status as a regional leader. Therefore, Brazil prefers the gradual approach toward the FTAA. In addition, FTAA negotiations are affected by other factors such as economic stability of Latin America, the European Union's policy toward Latin America, and the progress of the WTO's New Round of trade negotiations. Regarding the prospects of the FTAA, the following three scenarios are suggested in this article. The first scenario is the smooth progress of FTAA negotiations and a successful launching of the FTAA in 2005. This scenario can be realized if the United States plays a leading role and the MERCOSUR takes a cooperative stance to the FTAA. The second scenario is the launching of the FTAA with a limited scope. This scenario is possible if FTAA negotiations are delayed and the United States decides to launch the FTAA by expanding the NAFTA. The final scenario is the failure or delay of FTAA negotiations. This scenario can occur if the Bush government fails to obtain Fast Track Authority (FTA) from the Congress and thus loses its leadership in the FTAA negotiations. If this situation is realized, the MERCOSUR is likely to pursue the South American Free Trade Area (SAFTA) and the regional integration of the Americas will be controlled by two regional arrangements, the NAFTA and the SAFTA. The successful establishment of the FTAA is expected to provide a profound impact on the world economy and the American region. In the positive aspect, the FTAA is expected to become an impetus for the Latin American countries to change their protectionist policies and thus contributes to expanding the liberal trade order. At the regional level, it is no doubt that the FTAA lowers trade barriers and increases intra-regional trade and investment. In the negative aspect, the FTAA is likely to increase disadvantages and trade barriers to non-member countries and thus it may intensify the vicious cycle of competitive regionalism. The FTAA also contributes to enhancing the hegemony of the U.S. throughout the American region. Economic relations between Korea and the American region will be significantly affected by the FTAA. The American region has been the key export market for Korea and the establishment of the FTAA is expected to bring negative effects to Korean trade relations with this region. According to a Korean International Economic Policy (KIEP) study, the FTAA is estimated to cause 10-12% reduction of Korean exports to Latin America. Therefore, the Korean government and business need to pay close attention to the progress of FTAA negotiations, and should prepare for proper responding strategies before the FTAA comes into effect in 2005.

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