Notice bibliographique
Résumé
@font-face { font-family: "Cambria Math"; }@font-face { font-family: "Calibri"; }p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal { margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }p.MsoNoSpacing, li.MsoNoSpacing, div.MsoNoSpacing { margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Cambria; }.MsoChpDefault { font-family: Cambria; }div.WordSection1 { page: WordSection1; }\nABSTRACT\nFew epidemics have been documented in the context of historical Quebec. The rich epidemiological and demographic data contained in the Registre de population du Québec ancien makes it possible to conduct detailed analyses of historical epidemics and can be beneficial to filling in gaps in modern knowledge. The historical studies of measles have a distinct advantage over modern ones, in that epidemics can be analyzed in a natural state unhindered by modern medical treatment and vaccine campaigns. This dissertation attempts to fill this knowledge gap of infectious diseases through the development of methods to analyze epidemics in the absence of cause of death records. The results show the suitability of these methods to investigate the 1714-15 measles epidemic and its impact on the children in the population.\nThe first study examined the general dynamics of the epidemic that provisioned the baseline for the subsequent studies. Measles entry to the Montreal area was from Colonial America circa late-March of 1714. The epidemic spread eastwards to most other parts of the colony by late-August of the same year and disappeared early in 1715. Measles was virulent with an estimated death rate of 52.8 per thousand for children under age 15. Infants and toddlers were the main victims, while females were slightly more likely than males to have died from the virus. Although the epidemic originated in the Western parishes, severity finally turned out to be higher in the Eastern parishes of the colony.\nThe second study identified several measles-specific risk factors among children under age 5 were identified with case/control comparisons, which revealed that the effects of these factors were only significant and intensified during the acute phase of the epidemic. Contrary to what was reported in modern studies, singletons or children with fewer siblings had higher odds of dying than children in larger sibships. The age difference between siblings appeared to be a more important predictor of death than the size of the sibship, as a larger average difference led to an increased likelihood of death. As well, children with a sibling who died during the epidemic and children with immigrant parents were at higher risk.\nIn the third study, exposed children who survived the acute episode of the epidemic were followed for 25 months past the estimated date of infection. It was found that children exposed before age 3 had higher long-term mortality than the unexposed children. The difference remained significant while assessing the effects of the demographic and sibship risk factors. For the exposed cohort, the risk of death also varied by age and sex. Only females exposed during infancy had a significantly higher risk of dying, while both exposed male and female toddlers had higher mortality during the follow-up period. In this case, the effect was slightly stronger for males. No significant long-term mortality difference was found among children exposed between 36 and 59 months of age.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».