The Risk of Relapse in CML Patients Who Discontinued imatinib Can Be Predicted Based on Patients Age and the Results of dPCR Analysis

Abstract Introduction. Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients (pts) treated with imatinib first line achieve complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) in > 70% of cases and major molecular response (MMR) in 18-58%. These pts have a life expectancy similar to the general population. However even undetectable BCR-ABL may not equate to eradication of the disease because of the sensitivity of Q-RT-PCR. A new diagnostic method, the digital-PCR (dPCR), able to detect 1 BCR-ABL+ cell out of 107 cells, has been recently developed (Goh HG et al., 2011). dPCR corresponds to a 100 fold increase in sensitivity as compared to Q-RT-PCR. Therefore, dPCR by assessing the presence of minimal residual disease with higher sensitivity, could potentially identify pts in whom CML has been eradicated. Aims. The Imatinib Suspension And Validation (ISAV) study is aimed at validating the capability of dPCR to predict relapses after imatinib discontinuation in CML pts with negative Q-RT-PCR results. Methods. This study involves 15 sites, 10 in Italy and 1 in each of the following countries: Germany, Spain, The Netherlands, Canada and Israel. CML pts (Chronic or Accelerated Phase) under imatinib therapy since more than 2 years and in complete molecular remission (CMR) were eligible for this study. Patients had to be in CMR for at least 18 months (mts), with a minimum of 3 Q-RT-PCR performed at their own sites. After signing the informed consent, blood samples are obtained for dPCR and the pts discontinue imatinib therapy. Standard Q-RT-PCR is performed monthly (mts 1-6) and then bimonthly for 36 mts to assess the maintenance of the molecular remission. The loss of molecular remission is defined as two consecutive positive Q-RT-PCR tests with at least one BCR-ABL/ABL value above 0.1%. Patients losing molecular remission resume imatinib treatment at the same dosage used before interruption. Patients’ quality of life during imatinib discontinuation/resumption is evaluated through the EORTC – C30 Quality of Life questionnaire. Results. The enrolment in ISAV began in November 2011 and ended in July 2013. The study enrolled 112 pts: Italy 69.6%, Germany 21.4%, Canada 5.3%, Spain 2.6% and Israel 0.9%. Among the 112 pts, 59.3% were male and 37.0% were aged 65 or older; median duration of imatinib treatment was 103.1 mts with median duration of CMR of 25.8 mts before imatinib discontinuation. To date, the median follow-up (FUP) time is 16.6 mts [95% CI: 14.9-18.2]. Forty-seven pts (43.5%, 95% CI: 34.0-53.4) of the 108 eligible pts relapsed and resumed imatinib; 38/47 (80.9%) of them relapsed in the first 9 mts and the last relapse occurred 19.6 mts after imatinib discontinuation. A loss of CCyR occurred in 11 pts (23.4%): 10/11 CCyR losses were recovered; 1 patient withdrew the consent shortly after obtaining a partial cytogenetic response. No case of CML progression was observed. After the resumption of imatinib the median time to either MMR or CMR was 1.9 [95% CI: 1.2-2.4] mts. Of the 61 not-relapsed pts, 43 (39.8% of the total) regained Q-RT-PCR positivity but never lost MMR. The median time to Q-RT-PCR positivity was 3.6 mts [95% CI: 3.0-4.8] and the range of duration of Q-RT-PCR positivity (below 0.1%) was between 5.7 and 29.2 mts. No significant correlation between relapse and previous duration of imatinib treatment, use of interferon, time to CCyR or duration of CMR was identified. An inverse relationship between pts age and risk of relapse is evident: 90% of pts < 45 years relapsed vs 37.5% in the class ≥ 45 - < 65 years and 27.5% of pts ≥ 65 years, p(χ2)<0.0001. dPCR results showed that 23.4% of pts were positive and 76.6% negative, with a dPCR Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 63.4% (Tab.1) and a significant NPV ratio (dPCR/Q-RT-PCR) of 1.131 [95% CI: 1.032-1.239]. Age and dPCR results predicted the risk of relapse: pts with less than 45 years and with a positive dPCR had the highest risk of relapse (100%) as opposed to pts ≥ 45 years and with negative dPCR (30.6%; Fig.1). Conclusions. After 32 mts from the beginning of the study, with a median FUP of 16.6 mts, 43.5% of pts relapsed; the majority of relapses developed in the first 9 months after imatinib discontinuation. Age < 45 years and dPCR positivity are significantly associated with relapses. Funded by Regione Lombardia. Figure 1 Figure 1. Figure 2 Figure 2. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

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