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Enregistrement W191482471

Pre-1880 Illinois Weather Events Gleaned from Newspapers

2007· article· en· W191482471 sur OpenAlexaboutno aff
Wayne M. Wendland

Notice bibliographique

RevueJournal of the Illinois State Historical Society · 2007
Typearticle
Langueen
DomaineSocial Sciences
ThématiqueArchaeology and Natural History
Établissements canadiensnon disponible
Organismes subventionnairesnon disponible
Mots-clésGlacierClimate changePeriod (music)Flooding (psychology)ClimatologyGeographyHistoryPhysical geographyGeologyOceanography
DOInon disponible

Résumé

récupéré en direct d'OpenAlex

We often hear that the more things change, the more they stay the same. A quick check on Google shows that that statement has been applied to virtually all-human endeavors at one time or another. Although day-to-day weather often seems to average out with time, the longer-term ice ages and warm/cold and wet/dry episodes of the past rather clearly demonstrate that climate exhibits dramatic changes over decades, centuries, and longer. Twelve thousand years ago Lake County was covered by the southern extremities of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, a glacier that covered all of Canada and parts of north-central and northeastern United States. That presence certainly reflected a dramatically different atmospheric environment than those areas experience today. The large glacier made its own climate and that of the peripheral area. The period between roughly 8,000 and 5,000 years ago is an example of the other extreme, when world-wide temperatures were several degrees warmer than today, demonstrated by less permanent ice on land masses, higher sea level, and a redistribution of natural vegetation. In more recent times, recall the following shorter-term episodes. The snow-plagued Illinois winters of 1976-77, 1977-78 and 1982-83, the spring and summer drought and attendant crop failures in 1988, the persistent and heavy rainfall and attendant flooding during the summer of 1993, and the disastrous hurricane season of 2005. These were substantial extremes, but prompts the question as to whether they represent a change. Illinois weather during recent centuries behaved as erratically as in the long-ago and recent few years. Weather information of various types has been observed and recorded for several hundred years; however, early material (prior to systematic observations by trained observers) is generally restricted to non-quantitative, discontinuous or sporadic commentaries collected on an ad hoc basis and recorded in personal diaries, letters, and so on. In Illinois, systematic daily observations under the direction of the Smithsonian Institution, the Army Signal Corps and/or the U.S. Weather Bureau (USWB), now the National Weather Service (NWS), are only extant from seven sites prior to 1870, with another ten beginning during the 1870s, 97 more in the 1880s and an additional 70 in the 1890s.2 These ca. 200 NWS Cooperative sites today record maximum and minimum daily temperatures, daily precipitation, snowfall and snow on the ground. Twenty-four hour continuous weather observations are currently taken by the NWS in Illinois at the Springfield, Moline, Peoria, Rockford, Chicago O'Hare and Midway airports. In addition, the Federal Aviation Authority records hourly weather observations (generally 12-16 hours per day) at several additional airports about the state. Hourly data include cloud type, amount and height above the surface, visibility, obstructions to visibility type and amount of precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature, dew point, and wind direction and speed. Prior to these systematic observations, little is known and certainly less freely available. Two examples of early, discontinuous snapshots of weather at specific locations include journal comments from the Lewis and Clark Expedition while in Illinois: 12 November 1803, on the Ohio River adjacent Ft. Massac: Rain shortly after sunrise, continuing until mid -afternoon. River very low making canoe traffic difficult. Used horses to pull boats over exposed gravel. 15 November 1803, near confluence of Ohio and Mississippi Rivers: Overcast skies prevented latitude measurements. Ohio and Mississippi Rivers 28 November 1803, on the Mississippi opposite mouth of the Kaskaskia: Morning is smokey (misty). 5 December 1803, adjacent present-day Jefferson Co. MO: Sufficient water volume to power a mill. 7 December 1803, adjacent present-day St Louis Co. MO: Dark, rainy morning. Rained all night. Hard northeasterly wind-against us all day. …

Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.

Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier

Prédiction distillée sur la base complète

Imitation des enseignants

Ni prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.

score de la tête « metaresearch » (Codex)0,002
score de la tête « metaresearch » (Gemma)0,000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aStatut de validation: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Catégories candidatesaucune
Catégories consensuellesaucune
DomaineSignal candidat: aucune · Signal consensuel: aucune
Devis d'étudeSignal candidat: Sans objet · Signal consensuel: Sans objet
GenreSignal candidat: Empirique · Signal consensuel: Empirique
Score de désaccord entre enseignants0,429
Score d'incertitude au seuil1,000

Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie

CatégorieCodexGemma
Métarecherche0,0020,000
Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict)0,0000,000
Méta-épidémiologie (sens large)0,0000,001
Bibliométrie0,0000,000
Études des sciences et des technologies0,0010,001
Communication savante0,0000,000
Science ouverte0,0010,000
Intégrité de la recherche0,0000,001
Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger)0,0000,000

Scores machine (provisoires)

Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.

Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.

Tête enseignante Opus0,015
Tête enseignante GPT0,266
Écart entre enseignants0,251 · la distance entre les deux têtes enseignantes sur ce seul travail
Statut de validationscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle

Classification

machine, non validée

Prédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.

Les modèles n’ont appliqué aucune catégorie : rien dans la taxonomie ne correspondait à ce travail.
Devis d'étudeSans objet
Domainenon disponible
GenreEmpirique

Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».

En bref

Citations0
Publié2007
Routes d'admission1
Résumé présentoui

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