Is the boom in East Asian tourism happening at the expense of other destinations?: A cross-country analysis
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Over the years, tourism has emerged as the world’s largest peacetime industry employing approximately 221 million people worldwide. According to the UNWTO, the tourist traffic rose to a record 1.087 billion arrivals in 2013 and this surge is expected to continue through 2030, in annual increments of 3.8 percent. Much of this unprecedented boom may be attributed to newly-affluent Asian nations such as Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia as well as the huge populations of China, India and Indonesia - the first, second and fourth most populated countries in the world. Many analysts worry that the Asia Pacific region - a collection of dissimilar states squeezed between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific - could potentially be gaining market shares at the expense of their older rivals. We disagree with such a notion and will argue instead that the boom in East Asian tourist traffic is attributable to local factors primarily. Our examination of tourism data from the World Development Indicators database comprising a total of 92 countries covering a 16-year period (1995-2011), provides strong empirical support for our claim that the regional variation in tourism growth does not imply that some destinations are gaining at the expense of the rest. We examine changes in tourist arrivals among all relevant bilateral country pairs to test for a link between changes in tourist arrivals in Southeast Asian nations with Europe and North America. We do find that growth in tourist arrivals to countries of Southeast Asia has been particularly strong, but at the same time, tourism growth to Eastern Europe and to the Middle East has also been strong. This suggests that tourism is driven at least partly by economic growth of a destination, and it may also drive that growth. In examining changes in tourist arrivals by bilateral country pairs we find that for the vast majority of cases there is no support for the hypothesis that growth of tourism in one location comes at the expense of tourist arrivals to other countries. The tourism industry is dynamic and growing, and the success of new destinations does not come at the expense of traditional destinations. Rather countries seem to be establishing niches for themselves in terms of tourist offerings and as such may well be more complementary to each other than competitive. All countries—both developed and developing—may be able to stake a claim in the ever expanding global tourist trade.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,006 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle