Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract The realistic simulation of northern hemisphere glacial inceptions, which occurred during the Quaternary period, has challenged scores of climate theoreticians and modellers. After reviewing the Milankovitch theory of glaciation, a number of earlier modelling studies of the last glacial inception (LGI) which have employed either high‐resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs) or Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) are described. The latter class of models has been developed over the past two decades in order to investigate the many interactions and feedbacks among the geophysical and biospheric components of the Earth system that take place over long time scales. Following a description of the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM) and other EMICs, some recent McGill simulations of the LGI in response to orbital (Milankovitch) and radiative (atmospheric CO2) forcings are presented. Special attention is given to determining the relative roles of the ocean's thermohaline circulation, freshwater fluxes into the ocean, orography, cryospheric processes and vegetation dynamics during the inception phase. In particular, it is shown that with the vegetation‐albedo feedback included in the model, the buildup of ice sheets over North America is larger than over Eurasia, in agreement with observations. This paper concludes with a discussion on the (possible) occurrence of the next glacial period. To address this issue, which has been inspired by recent publications of Berger and Loutre, MPM simulations of the climate for the next 100 kyr, forced by various prescribed atmospheric CO2 levels, as well as the future insolation changes as calculated by the Berger algorithm, are presented. The influence of a near‐term global warming scenario on glacial inception is also examined. If it is assumed that after such a warming scenario the concentration of CO2in the atmosphere returns to pre‐industrial levels (in the range of 280–290 ppm), then the MPM predicts that the next glacial would start at around 50 kyr after present, which is consistent with the results of Berger and Loutre. Finally, recent simulations of future glacial inceptions using the Potsdam EMIC which includes an atmosphere‐ocean carbon cycle component are described. From one of these simulations in which 5000 GtC are released into the atmosphere due to human activities, it is concluded that the current interglacial will last for at least another half‐million years because of the limited ability of the oceans to absorb such a large carbon release to the atmosphere.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,005 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».