Evaluation of SAGD Projects Using a Dynamic Economic Indicator
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract An economic indicator, simple thermal efficiency parameter (STEP), was developed to evaluate the performance of a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) project. Its usefulness as an economic indicator was also validated for typical Alberta oil sands areas. In reality, the economics of a thermal project depend strongly on the economic limit of the instantaneous steam-oil ratio (SOR) and the heavy oil price. Furthermore, a dynamic model for STEP, called STEP-D, was developed to be used as an economic indicator under changing process and economic parameters. In this study, STEP-D values were calculated for several SAGD projects in Alberta. Although most of these SAGD projects, except the pilot projects, are still early in their production period, it is interesting to compare the economics of these projects under various dynamic conditions. Under the conditions of a bitumen price of US$15 and an instantaneous SOR economic limit of 3, only three projects exhibit STEP-D values higher than 1 which is considered to be economic. However, if a bitumen price of US$30 and an instantaneous SOR economic limit of 6 were assumed, most of the SAGD projects examined would be economic. This confirms that bitumen price and steam costs are key factors for SAGD project economics. Introduction An economic indicator called STEP was developed for use in evaluating the economics of a SAGD project in the series of studies (1, 2, 3). The first two studies (1, 2) addressed its usefulness as an economic indicator qualitatively as well as quantitatively. In the third study (3), a dynamic model for STEP called STEP-D was developed to be used as an economic indicator under the changing conditions of the economic limit of SOR and heavy oil price. The development of STEP will be summarized in the next section in detail. All the data used in STEP value calculations in the previous works (1, 2, 3) were from simulation results. We were interested in using STEP-D to evaluate the economics of on-going SAGD projects using field performance data. In this study, STEP-D values have been calculated for several SAGD projects in the Alberta oil sands areas. Most of these SAGD projects, except few small scale pilot projects, are still early in their production phase. Development of STEP and STEP-D STEP was initially introduced to evaluate the performance of a SAGD project under optimal conditions. It was proposed as a simple economic indicator, to be used instead of NPV, while determining the best SAGD operating conditions (1). The simulation results showed that NPV had a linear relationship with RF and CDOR, but a decreasing exponential relationship with CSOR (Figure 1). In order to use STEP as a quantitative economic criterion, the original definition of STEP (1) was modified and this resulted in the following equation (2): Equation (1) (Available in full paper) The economic limit for each SAGD performance parameter is assumed to be as follows in the above equation: 3 for CSOR, 0.111 m3/d/m of horizontal well length for CDOR, and 0.5 for RF.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
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Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,006 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,005 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
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