Estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations: a novel method using HIV testing data compared to other methods
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
OBJECTIVE: To estimate population size of hard-to-reach groups such as injecting drug users and men who have sex with men. DESIGN: Several different methods were used to estimate the size of these populations in Canada's three largest cities (Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver). METHODS: A novel method (referred to as the indirect method) was developed for use in Toronto and Vancouver that combines HIV serodiagnostic information with data on HIV testing behavior. Population size estimates were obtained by dividing the number of injecting drug users or men who have sex with men recorded in HIV serodiagnostic databases in a given year by the proportion of the corresponding group that reported being tested in a 1-year period. Results of this method were compared with four other methods: (1) population surveys; (2) capture-recapture (for injecting drug users only); (3) a modified Delphi technique; and (4) a method based on the proportion of never-married men aged 45 and over (for men who have sex with men only). Only these other methods were used in Montreal. RESULTS: The survey method gave the lowest estimates which are best viewed as minimum estimates given the relative inability of surveys to access these populations and the reluctance of participants to admit to sensitive behaviors. The indirect method produced results more closely comparable with those obtained by other methods, but they are probably slight overestimates, at least for injecting drug users, due to possible underestimation of the proportion tested for HIV. Point estimates using the indirect method were 17,700 and 17,500 for injecting drug users in Toronto and Vancouver, respectively, and 39,100 and 15,900 for men who have sex with men. In Toronto, results for the other methods ranged from 12,300-13,360 for injecting drug users and 18,800-35,000 for men who have sex with men. For Vancouver, these ranges were 6400-11,670 and 7000-26,500, respectively. In Montreal, ranges were 4300-12,500 for injecting drug users and 18,500-40,000 for men who have sex with men. CONCLUSIONS: This novel method provides estimates of population size of hard-to-reach groups such as injecting drug users and men who have sex with men that are comparable with results derived by other methods. These estimates may be useful for the purposes of planning, implementing and evaluating prevention and care services, especially when they are combined with the results of other estimation methods to improve the degree of confidence in the resulting estimates.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,003 | 0,016 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».