Referendum Campaigns in Polarized Societies: The Case of Turkey

Abstract Can referendum mechanism be used in deeply polarized societies without invoking existing cleavages? This question is tackled by studying two recent Turkish constitutional referenda, which took place in 2007 and 2010. Turkish society and politics are highly polarized along the secular versus pro-Islam axis. Based on an in-depth study of the campaign materials, media content analysis, and survey data from both cases, it is demonstrated that although both referendum proposals were related to secularism in Turkey, this cleavage was more visible in the 2010 vote. If political parties choose to treat referenda as elections, voters' predispositions are more likely to be reinforced, and partisan voting is more likely to prevail. This research shows that controlled comparisons help in understanding the role of party politics in direct democracy. Acknowledgement The authors would like to thank André Blais and Ekrem Karakoc for their helpful comments and advice on the earlier versions of this paper. Notes David Butler and Austin Ranney (eds.), Referendums Around the World: The Growing Use of Direct Democracy (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1994). Lawrence LeDuc, "Opinion Change and Voting Behaviour in Referendums," European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 41, No. 6 (2002), pp. 711–732. Ibid. Hanspeter Kriesi, Direct Democratic Choice: The Swiss Experience (Oxford: Lexington Books, 2005). Jan-Erik Lane and Svante Ersson, Politics and Society in Western Europe, 4th ed. (London: Sage, 1999). Pier Vincenzo Uleri, "Introduction," in Michael Gallagher and Pier Vincenzo Uleri (eds.), The Referendum Experience in Europe (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1996), pp. 1–19. For exceptions see Kriesi (2005) or LeDuc, (2002). The question has also been explored in relation to European Union referenda, in order to see whether domestic (dissatisfaction with the government or political party cues) or European factors determine the vote. For a review of this literature, see Sara Hobolt, "How Parties Affect Vote Choice in European Integration Referendums," Party Politics, Vol. 12, No. 5 (2006), pp. 623–647, Sara Hobolt, Europe in Question: Referendums on European Integration (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009), Palle Svensson, "Five Danish Referendums on the European Community and European Union: A Critical Assessment of the Franklin Thesis," European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 41, No. 6 (2002), pp. 733–750. LeDuc (2002). See John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992), Sara Hobolt, "When Europe Matters: The Impact of Political Information on Voting Behaviour in EU Referendums," Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, Vol. 15, No. 1 (2005), pp. 85–109, Ian McAllister, "Elections without Cues: The 1999 Australian Republic Referendum," Australian Journal of Political Science, Vol. 36, No. 2 (2001), pp. 247–269, R Darcy and Michael Laver, "Referendum Dynamics and the Irish Divorce Amendment," Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 54, No. 1 (1990), pp. 1–20, Claes de Vreese and Holli Semetko, Political Campaigning in Referendums: Framing the Referendum Issue (Abingdon: Routledge, 2004), Claes de Vreese, The Dynamics of Referendum Campaigns: An International Perspective (Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan, 2007). LeDuc (2002). Ibid, Richard Johnston et al., The Challenge of Direct Democracy: The 1992 Canadian Referendum (Montreal: McGill—Queen's University Press, 1996). See Richard Johnston et al. (1996) and Hobolt (2009). See John Highley and Ian McAllister, "Elite Division and Voter Confusion: Australia's Republic Referendum in 1999," European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 41, No. 6 (2002), pp. 845–861, Darcy and Laver (1990). LeDuc (2002). See Peter Aimer and Raymond Miller, "Partisanship and Principle: Voters and the New Zealand Electoral Referendum of 1993," European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 41, No. 6 (2002), pp. 795–809, David Denver, "Voting in the 1997 Scottish and Welsh Devolution Referendums: Information, Interests and Opinions," European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 41, No. 6 (2002), pp. 827–843, Jon Pammett and Lawrence LeDuc, "Sovereignty, Leadership and Voting in the Quebec Referendums," Electoral Studies, Vol. 20, No. 2 (2001), pp. 265–280. Richard Sinnott, "Cleavages, Parties and Referendums: Relationships between Representative and Direct Democracy in the Republic of Ireland," European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 41, No. 6 (2002), pp. 811–826. Lane and Ersson (1999). Arend Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977). See Kriesi (2005) and Zaller (1992). Referendum can also serve as a mechanism for minorities and small opposition parties to assert their interests. For instance, in Switzerland referendum method also complements the heavy institutional orientation towards consensus, despite being a majoritarian mechanism in itself. See Lane and Ersson (1999), Kris Kobach, "Switzerland," in David Butler and Austin Ranney, (eds.), Referendums Around the World: The Growing Use of Direct Democracy (Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1994), pp. 98–153. Kriesi (2005). Ibid. In his extensive study of Swiss referenda, he finds that opposition from the right is more resourceful in mobilizing against the government than the opposition from the left. Kriesi (2005). Ibid. He suggests that awareness can also depend on individual-level factors such as political interest, education and age; but he treats these characteristics as secondary. Serif Mardin, "Center-Periphery Relations: A Key to Turkish Politics?", Daedalus, Vol. 102, No. 1 (1973), pp. 169–190. Moreover, long-term factors such as modernization, industrialization, urbanization as well as recent changes in the regional dynamics since the end of the Cold War led to rising conservatism in Turkish public opinion. See Ali Carkoglu and Ersin Kalaycioglu, The Rising Tide of Conservatism in Turkey (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009), Cem Baslevent, Hasan Kirmanoglu and Burhan Senatalar, "Empirical Investigation of Party Preferences and Economic Voting in Turkey," European Journal of Political Research, Vol. 44, No. 4 (2005), pp. 547–562, Sabri Sayari and Yilmaz Esmer (eds.), Politics, Parties and Elections in Turkey (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2002), Metin Heper, "The Justice and Development Party Government and the Military in Turkey," Turkish Studies, Vol. 6, No. 2 (2005), pp. 215–231. See Ali Carkoglu, "The Nature of Left-Right Ideological Self-placement in the Turkish Context," Turkish Studies, Vol. 8, No. 2 (2007), pp. 253–271, Ersin Kalaycioglu, "Justice and Development Party at the Helm: Resurgence of Islam or Restitution of the Right-of-Center Predominant Party?," Turkish Studies, Vol. 11, No. 1 (2010), pp. 29–44, Ali Carkoglu and Ersin Kalaycioglu, Turkish Democracy Today: Elections, Protest and Stability in an Islamic Society (London: I.B.Tauris, 2007). Carkoglu (2007). Sencer Ayata and Ayse Gunes-Ayata, "The Center-Left Parties in Turkey," Turkish Studies, Vol. 8, No. 2 (2007), pp. 211–232, Nora Onar, "Kemalists, Islamists, and Liberals: Shifting Patterns of Confrontation and Consensus, 2002–06," Turkish Studies, Vol. 8, No. 2 (2007), pp. 273–288, Ziya Onis, "Conservative Globalism at the Crossroads: The Justice and Development Party and the Thorny Path to Democratic Consolidation in Turkey," Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 14, No. 1 (2009), pp. 21–40, Fuat Keyman and Ziya Onis, "Globalization and Social Democracy in the European Periphery: Paradoxes of the Turkish Experience," Globalizations, Vol. 4, No. 2 (2007), pp. 211–228. The official results are available from the Turkish Supreme Election Board at: http://www.ysk.gov.tr/ysk/GenelSecimler.html The official results are available from the Turkish Supreme Election Board at: http://www.ysk.gov.tr/ysk/GenelSecimler.html The first two referenda were held in 1961 and 1982 to approve brand new constitutions drafted after military coups. The third was held in 1987 to lift the ban on political leaders before the 1980 coup, and the fourth was held in 1988 to hold early municipal elections. Onis (2009). Ibid. Senem Aydin Duzgit, "Constitutional Referendum in Turkey: What Next?," Center for European Policy Studies Commentary (2010). For a detailed description of this case, see: http://arsiv.ntvmsnbc.com/news/439256.asp Ziya Onis, "Contesting for Turkey's Political 'Centre': Domestic Politics, Identity Conflicts and the Controversy over EU Membership," Journal of Contemporary European Studies, Vol. 18, No. 3 (2010), pp. 361–376. Survey conducted by Metropoll Strategic and Social Research Center, between 24 and 26 January 2009, with a sample size of 1348. Available at: http://www.metropoll.com.tr/category/show/3 Aydin Duzgit (2010). Ibid. For details of this complicated legal process see: http://www.cnnturk.com/2010/turkiye/07/07/anayasa.degisikligi.kismen.iptal/582543.0/index.html Available at: http://www.medyatakip.com/medyaarastirmalari.php The breakdown of the 101 articles was as follows: Justice and Development Party (AKP) 45, Republican People's Party (CHP) 32, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) 14, Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) 6, Democratic Party (DP) 2, Democratic Left Party (DSP) 1, Great Union Party (BBP) 1. One news article can have multiple labels depending on its content. By domestic politics we refer to referendum speeches on issues such as the economy, terrorism, headscarves, political immunities, corruption, the Ergenekon Investigation, as well as polemical exchanges. By imposition we refer to statements presenting the proposed package as an imposition by the AKP government on the public. Survey conducted by Metropoll Strategic and Social Research Center, between 14 and 20 May 2007, with a sample size of 2469. Available at: http://www.metropoll.com.tr/category/show/3 Unpublished survey conducted by Konda Research and Consultancy, on August 18–19, 2007, with a sample size of 2734. Available upon request from the institution. Survey conducted by Metropoll Strategic and Social Research Center, between 19 and 21 December 2007, with a sample size of 1242. Available at: http://www.metropoll.com.tr/category/show/3 About 6.7% of the public said they did not know. Unpublished survey conducted by Konda Research and Consultancy, on August 18–19, 2007, with a sample size of 2734. Available upon request from the institution. Survey conducted by Estima Research and Consultancy, between 6 and 9 July 2007, with a sample size of 2034. This poll was conducted in the same month as the general elections, in which the AKP won 46.58% of the popular vote, followed by the CHP with 20.88%. Available at: http://www.estima.com.tr/raporlar.asp There is no similar, systematic and comparable data available on the 2007 campaign, which is another indicator of low interest in the 2007 referendum. Surveys conducted by Konda Research and Consultancy on: June 5–6, 2010 (sample size of 2738), July 3–4, 2010 (sample size of 1853), August 7–8, 2010 (sample size of 2748) and finally September 4–5, 2010, with a sample size of 2767. Available at: http://www.konda.com.tr/index.php?sf=11 LeDuc (2002). Survey conducted by Konda Research and Consultancy, on 3–4 April 2010, with a sample size of 3663. Available at: http://www.konda.com.tr/index.php?sf=11 Table 2 represents the results of the following surveys: Survey conducted by the Andy-Ar Center for Social Research, available at: http://andy-ar.com/arsiv/. Survey conducted by the Genar Research Education Consultancy, between 31 July and 8 August 2010, with a sample size of 2274, available at: http://www.genar.com.tr/. Survey conducted by the A&G Arastirma, on September 12, 2010, with a sample size of 3072. Respondents could choose more than one answer, available at: http://www.agarastirma.com.tr/ Survey conducted by the A&G Arastirma, on September 12, 2010, with a sample size of 3072. Respondents could choose more than one answer. Available at: http://www.agarastirma.com.tr/ The official turnout rates are available from the Turkish Supreme Election Board at: http://www.ysk.gov.tr/ysk/GenelSecimler.html Lawrence LeDuc, "Opinion Formation and Change in Referendum Campaigns," in Claes de Vreese (ed.), The Dynamics of Referendum Campaigns: An International Perspective (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007), pp. 21–46, Sara Hobolt, "Campaign Information and Voting Behavior in EU Referendums," in C. de Vreese (ed.), The Dynamics of Referendum Campaigns: An International Perspective (Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan, 2007), pp. 84–116. Le Duc argues that the referendum turnout levels show more variation due to more volatility in public opinion, moreover, turnout itself is partially a campaign effect. Where parties fail to mobilize their supporters on behalf of an issue, or where non-party groups succeed in mobilizing theirs, the outcome of a referendum can be more directly subject to a differential turnout effect. Hobolt argues that in intense campaigns, people are exposed to more information and are less likely to abstain. See Michael Baum and André Freire, "Political Parties, Cleavage Structures and referendum Voting: Electoral Behavior in the Portuguese Regionalization Referendum of 1998," South European Society and Politics, Vol. 6, No. 1 (2001), pp. 1–26, Tor Midtbø and Kjell Hines, "The Referendum-Election Nexus: An Aggregate Analysis of Norwegian Voting Behavior," Electoral Studies, Vol. 17, No. 1 (1998), pp. 77–94. Boowhan Han, "The Venice Commission and Code of Good Practice on Referendums as an international Standard," ed. Council of Europe (2007), Venice Commission, "Code of Good Practice on Referendums," ed. Council of Europe (2007).

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