P1-S4.18 Using mathematical modelling to investigate the role of the hidden “population of men who have sex with men (MSM) on the HIV epidemic in Southern India”
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Background Biological and behavioural data for men who have sex with men (MSM) in Bangalore, Karnataka, India, have mainly been collected from sites where commercial sex is prevalent. Consequently, the survey data may fail to capture the behaviour of a larger lower-risk “hidden” MSM population. Mathematical modelling is used to explore the potential bias in the survey data and better quantify the characteristics of this hidden population. Methods A dynamic model of HIV transmission among MSM was developed and parameterised using detailed data* from high risk MSM in urban Bangalore. The MSM were categorised into three subgroups: Kothi and Hijra(KH): who mostly take the receptive role in anal sex, Panthis and Bisexuals(PB) who are predominantly insertive partners and Double Deckers(DD) who take both roles. Due to the sampling methods used, it was thought the MSM survey data were more representative of KH and DD than PB, although the extent of this bias is unknown. Therefore, no fitting constraint was applied to the PB HIV prevalence and instead the model was used to explore what PB HIV prevalence values are projected if the model was only fit to the 95% CIs of the prevalence data for KH and DD. One million randomly sampled model simulations were undertaken to find model fits. Results Abstract P1-S4.18 figure 1 shows that, although the model can produce HIV prevalence estimates consistent with the survey estimates, overall the model projections suggest a lower PB HIV prevalence is more consistent with the survey estimates for KH and DD. In addition, 80% of the model fits to the KH and DD HIV prevalence data had a sampled frequency of sex acts for PB in the lower half of the uncertainty interval suggesting PB's sexual activity may be lower than the median reported in the MSM survey. As expected, an inverse relationship occurs between PB population size and their level of sexual activity, with the median PB population size being 55 400 (2.7% of the total urban male population) and varying between 28 000 and 73 000 (1.5 to 3.9% of the total urban male population) for the IQR of the model fits Conclusions: Survey data imply MSM are a small, highly active group, many of whom regularly sell sex, have very high numbers of partners and typically take the receptive role. As demonstrated here, modelling can be used to provide insights into the likely HIV prevalence, population size and sexual activity of hidden “MSM not reached in surveys.” Abstract P1-S4.18 Figure 1 Number and range of projected HIV prevalence estimates for the PB population (from the model fits to KH and DD data. *Integratedbiological and behavioural assessment (IBBA) 2009, collected within the monitoring and evaluation of Avahan, the India AIDS initiative.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».