A Prediction on the Performance and Economic Viability of Future Gas Wells in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Abstract The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) is dominantly a gas-bearing basin, particularly in the western and northern regions. With the major fluctuations in gas prices over the past year, it has become increasingly difficult to determine the economic viability of exploring for and developing natural gas reserves within the basin. Each geographic area within the WCSB has its own economic criteria from the relatively inexpensive low reserve, low deliverability shallow gas of southeastern Alberta to the high reserve, high deliverability of Western Alberta and Northeastern British Columbia. To compare which plays are economically more attractive, a detailed analysis must be done to statistically compare the risk factors, the ultimate reserves and deliverability for each gas-bearing horizon. In addition, a full cycle economic model must be constructed in order to determine the future economic viability of each play. To predict how future wells will perform, the statistical database must be based on the most recent drilling; however, success, reserves, and deliverability trends through time must also be investigated. The current model subdivides the WCSB into 16 geographic areas and related gas-bearing horizons. Statistical success rates, ultimate reserves, and deliverabilities for current gas wells have been determined for each gas-bearing interval through time. Data from the last five years is then utilized to predict the risked and unrisked reserve and deliverability distribution for future wells within each geographic area. An economic model using land, seismic, capital, and operating costs compares gas plays, prospects, and acquisition opportunities across the WCSB. During the period January 1999 to December 2004, 44,224 gas wells (that can be declined) have been put on production. These wells have found in excess of 17.2 TCF of gas reserves with an average reserve per well of 0.39 BCF. The geographic area where the most gas wells were drilled and put on production was in Southern Alberta with 20,344 wells. Southern Alberta also showed the lowest average reserves per well, of wells that can be currently declined, of 0.11 BCF while the BC Foothills showed the highest reserves per well of 7.8 BCF. Introduction The full cycle economic viability for all productive natural gas formations ("gas plays") in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin ("WCSB") can be determined using publicly available geological, land, and production data. This paper represents a summary of the processes utilized in a series of larger regional studies performed by the consulting firm AJM Petroleum Consultants (AJM) from 2001 to the present. The regional studies utilized various parameters for the gas plays resulting from an unbiased statistical analysis of all wells drilled during the most recent five-year period within the WCSB. Results were reported for both risked (Exploration and Development) and unrisked (Development) cases. The area investigated in the regional studies includes all productive natural gas formations in Western Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Northeastern British Columbia. The basin was subdivided into 16 geographic areas (Figure 1).
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,003 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».