Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Was M. King Hubbert, the famous American Earth scientist, really the first visionary to talk about peak oil? Indeed, many regard Hubbert as the Nostradamus of the oil industry, with his 1950s analytic work on peaking oil production part of any discussion about world oil supply today. But on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, John Cadman was an oil oracle too, predating Hubbert by 30 years. Though Cadman's thoughts about the future of oil were more qualitative, we are witnessing his important prophecies today. In the end, Hubbert's numerical analysis and Cadman's astute foresights go hand in hand. A geologist by training, Cadman eventually became Chairman of Anglo-Persian, the predecessor company to British Petroleum, which has evolved into today's BP. Accepting the Chairmanship of Anglo-Persian on 2 November 1927, Cadman said in his inaugural address, "Very many years must elapse before natural petroleum resources will be unable to meet the greater part of the world's requirements. Of course, the time will eventually come when the world may have to look for a great part of its supplies from secondary and synthetic sources." Fast forward 80 years. Enough time has passed to have seen many of the world's prime hydrocarbon reservoirs mature. Big oil exploration has gradually migrated from the easy geographies of Pennsylvania and Texas to the deep offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Internationally, megascale oil projects today are found in places such as offshore Africa, the offshore Arctic waters of Russia, or many other places that are at what I call the "ends of the Earth"—geographically extreme places where the oil is buried deep under water and rock. In addition, a lot of oil is buried under deep layers of authoritarianism, corruption, civil strife, and geopolitical intrigue. On the demand side, the President of the United States has acknowledged that the United States is "addicted" to oil. But the addiction does not end at the U.S. border; the craving for oil is global. Using Cadman's phrase for consumption: "The greater part of the world's requirements" is now a thousand-barrel-a-second oil dependency that is growing relentlessly year after year. So, the time has come. The world's requirement for more and more oil is taxing the industry's ability to supply it easily. We have finally reached Cadman's point of transition, where the world needs to look for a great part of its oil supplies from "secondary and synthetic sources." Where is this happening on a big scale?
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,003 | 0,015 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,003 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,003 | 0,003 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,007 | 0,004 |
| Communication savante | 0,009 | 0,003 |
| Science ouverte | 0,003 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,016 | 0,014 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,045 | 0,015 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».