Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Summary When we recognize that oil and gas were formed in the geological past, we admit that they are subject to depletion. Production in any place has to start at zero on discovery and end at zero on exhaustion, reaching a peak in between. Yet, such an understanding confounds classical economics, which holds that there can be no shortage in an open market and that one resource is seamlessly replaced by a substitute as need arises. With modern methods, engineers can determine the size of an oilfield accurately, so there should be no particular technical difficulty in determining where we are on the depletion curve. The problem is in the reporting. In plain language, Proved Reserves, mean Proved-so-Far for financial purposes, not necessarily describing the full field. The consequential "Reserve Growth" gives the misleading impression that more is being found than is the case. Todetermine our position on the depletion curve we need the right numbers and the right dates of discovery, and we need to define carefully what to measure. Oil from a free flowing well is not the same as hydrocarbon extracted from a tar sand. If we could hire detectives to smoke out the real 2002 data for what we can call cheap and easy Conventional Oil (excluding tar sand and heavy oils, deepwater and polar oils, and NGL from gas fields), we would probably find that the World has found about 1770 billion barrels. Of that, about 870 Gb are left. Extrapolating discovery shows about 130 Gb more to find. We are therefore close to the half-way mark when production must begin to decline, reflecting the peak of discovery in the 1960s. Furthermore, what is left is most unevenly distributed. It is as simple as it is disturbing. The last Century was driven by a cheap and abundant supply of oil- this Century won't be. Introduction Discovery of conventional oil peaked in the mid-1960s. Since the early 1980's production has out-paced discoveries by nearly 150 Gb-roughly one and a half times the reserves of Iraq. Today, even with advances in technology and including deep water developments, only one barrel is found for every three barrels produced. With declining discoveries and increasing demand, the debate within the industry is if world oil production is nearing peak and may in fact be on plateau. Conventional vs. Non-conventional Oil Reserves It is common practice to distinguish conventional from nonconventional hydrocarbons. The family of hydrocarbons is a large one. Each member has its own endowment in Nature, its own characteristics, costs, and depletion profile. It is obvious that you can deplete light oil flowing 20,000 barrels a day from a Middle East well much more quickly than you can extract oil from a heavy tar sand in Canada. About 95% of all oil produced to date-and 90% of todayâ??s production-comes from this group of hydrocarbons called conventional oil. It will continue to dominate supply until well past peak.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».