Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Editor's column Energy outlooks by companies, government agencies, and private industry groups identify long-term energy trends and develop projections on supply and demand based on factors such as technological advancement, population trends, the global economy, and policy issues. One of the most respected of these viewpoints comes annually from ExxonMobil, which last month updated its projections for the next 25-plus years in its “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.” Although some of the trends are carry-overs from previous editions, the energy landscape has changed a lot over the past few years, most notably the growth in unconventional resources in North America. Here are some of the significant findings from the report: Energy demand in developing nations will rise 65% by 2040, reflecting growing prosperity and expanding economies. Greater demand in electricity and transportation fuel will help drive this increase. Technology continues to allow for the development of once hard-to-produce energy resources, significantly expanding available supplies to meet global demand. Oil will remain the top global fuel, as transportation use will contribute to gasoline and diesel demand. Demand for transportation fuel will stay flat in Europe and decline in North America, but it will grow dramatically in the rest of the world. Natural gas will become the world’s second most used fuel during the period, overtaking coal. ExxonMobil forecasts that global energy consumption will rise 35% by 2040, primarily in China and India. Demand in developed regions such as the United States, Canada, and Europe will largely remain unchanged or decline as they become more efficient in their energy use. Developed nations are forecast to generate 80% more economic output by 2040 compared with 2010, but will use the same amount of energy. Another report released last month, by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), predicts that growth in unconventional production will continue to have a huge effect on the US. The report forecasts US oil production increases of more than 200,000 B/D each year through 2019. In addition, the country will become an important supplier of natural gas globally as domestic production outpaces demand. The US currently produces 6.5 million B/D of oil and that figure will rise to 7.5 million B/D by 2019, and will remain above 6 million B/D through 2040, according to the report. Most of the growth will come from onshore production, mainly from shale and other tight formations, the EIA said. US gas production will continue to out-strip domestic demand through 2020. The outlook sees world oil demand growing from the current 88 million B/D to 113 million B/D in 2040 because of strong consumption in China, India, Brazil, and other developing economies.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».