The Effect of Climate Change on the Sea Ice and Hydrography in Nares Strait
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
A three-dimensional coupled ocean (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model; HYCOM) and sea-ice (Community Ice Code; CICE) model were used to simulate the ice cover and hydrography in the Lincoln Sea, Nares Strait and Baffin Bay for the period 1952 to 2080. The first eight years were used to spin up the model. The last 120 years were divided into four-year sub-periods, which have been evaluated and compared in order to estimate the simulated changes. The modelled oceanic volume flux and freshwater fluxes compare well with observations in the present day scenario. The annual volume flux varies, but the 10-year average is approximately 0.8 Sv (1 Sv = 106m3s−1) without any long-term trend. It should be noted that 5 cm were added to the sea surface height in Baffin Bay and Lancaster Sound during the entire simulation. This was done in order to control the volume flux of the control period without changing the variabillity. The freshwater flux increases from approximately 27 mSv in the control scenario to 73 mSv in the future scenario, mainly due to a fresher surface. The magnitude of the annual ice area flux through Nares Strait is higher than expected compared with results from satellite images. This is because the ice arch formed in the southern part of Kane Basin is less stable in the model simulation. The result is a sea-ice area flux of about 100 . This is approximately the same sea-ice area flux as observed in 2007 when the ice arch did not form. The sea-ice area flux from 2040 increases by around 50% because of a lowering of the sea-ice concentration which causes a large reduction in the internal sea-ice strength. The sea-ice volume flux is reduced during the entire period from approximately 200 to around 125 . The simulated sea-ice cover decreases throughout the entire period. The area is still fully ice covered during winter, but the duration of the sea-ice coverage becomes shorter. This leads to a fresher sea surface and a temperature increase of up to 0.5 °C at depths of approximately 200 m. The opening of the North Water Polynya in spring is limited by the reduced lifetime of the ice arch in Kane Basin. However, during some years when the ice arch is stable the polynya opens as expected both in time and place.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».