Projection of the Future Dimensions and Costs of the Genital Herpes Simplex Type 2 Epidemic in the United States
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
BACKGROUND: Infection with herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) currently affects approximately 22% of adult Americans and increased markedly in prevalence between the late 1970s and early 1990s. Although some estimates of the costs of prevalent disease due to HSV-2 are available, selection of interventions to prevent HSV-2 infection, as well as evaluation of their potential cost-effectiveness, should take into account projected future costs that will result if the epidemic is left unchecked. GOAL: The goal was to estimate the future health and economic consequences attributable to the HSV-2 epidemic in the absence of interventions to slow the epidemic. STUDY DESIGN: A mathematical model was constructed to project future increases in HSV-2 seroprevalence in the United States. The probability of heterosexual transmission of HSV-2 was estimated from cross-sectional estimates of infection prevalence reported by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Per-infection expected costs were calculated on the basis of data obtained from the published medical literature. RESULTS Without intervention, the prevalence of HSV-2 infection among individuals aged 15 to 39 years was projected to increase to 39% among men and 49% among women by 2025. Annual incidence was projected to increase steadily between 2000 and 2025, from 9 to 26 infections per 1,000 men and from 12 to 32 infections per 1,000 women in this age group. The cost of incident infections in the year 2000 were estimated to be $1.8 billion; the cost of incident infections was predicted to rise to $2.5 billion by 2015 and $2.7 billion by 2025. The projected cumulative cost of incident HSV-2 infections occurring over the next 25 years was estimated to be $61 billion; at a 3% discount rate, this sum has a present value of $43 billion. CONCLUSION: The costs of incident HSV-2 infection in the United States are substantial and can be expected to increase as both the incidence and prevalence of this disease increase in the first half of the century. The level of resource allocation for HSV-2 prevention strategies should reflect the economic benefits that would result from control of this epidemic.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle