Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Editor's column Signs point to sustained strong oil prices this year, levels that will continue to support upstream unconventional projects in North America and elsewhere. North Sea Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the world’s two key benchmark prices, averaged around USD 108/bbl and USD 97/bbl, respectively, in 2013. And most price forecasts for 2014, which began emerging from analysts and investment houses in the fourth quarter, predict similar price levels in the new year. The wild card in that scenario, however, is the growth of non-OPEC supply and production levels from Libya and Iraq, which are difficult to anticipate. North American supply is expected to continue its upward swing, and significant increases in Kazakhstan are also forecast. Commercial production at Kashagan, Kazakhstan’s giant Caspian Sea oil field, is expected to begin in the first half of the year. The field was discovered in 2000, one of the largest finds in decades, but development has faced rising costs and numerous delays. US crude oil production is expected to rise again this year. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) says US crude output averaged 7.5 million BOPD in 2013 and will average 8.5 million BOPD in 2014. When US production hit 8 million BOPD in November, it was the highest monthly output level since 1988. The EIA believes that growth shows no signs of stopping, with US crude production forecast to come to a high of 9.6 million BOPD in 2016, a level not seen since 1970. The EIA sees non-OPEC production growing from 54.2 million BOPD in 2013 to 55.9 million BOPD this year. Most of the non-OPEC production growth will be from US onshore tight oil formations and Canadian oil sands, with smaller increases from Africa, South America, and Asia. That will continue to put pressure on OPEC, which has watched its market share erode recently. OPEC countries are expected to produce 29.4 million BOPD this year, compared with an average of 30.3 million BOPD in 2013. Oil prices are notoriously hard to predict. Some of the same analysts who forecasts strong prices this year predicted a sharp drop in oil prices in 2013, something that never happened. Nevertheless, there seems to be a consensus that Brent and WTI will remain near their current levels in the new year. A survey of price forecasters published by Petroleum Intelligence Weekly in December showed most analysts seeing Brent in a USD 100-110/bbl range for the near year, and WTI at around USD 90-100/bbl. The survey of 10 analysts at consulting groups and investment banks shows Brent crude averaging USD 106/bbl for 2014, while the average for WTI is USD 97/bbl. Forecasters were optimistic that Libyan output would recover after months of disruption, and that a strengthening global economy would help absorb oil supply growth. JPT
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,012 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,006 | 0,004 |
| Science ouverte | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,014 | 0,010 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,379 | 0,329 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».