Different Convergence Parameters Applied to the S-PLUS GAM Function
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
ArticlePlus Click on the links below to access all the ArticlePlus for this article. Please note that ArticlePlus files may launch a viewer application outside of your web browser. https://links.lww.com/EDE/A34 https://links.lww.com/EDE/A35 To the Editor: Recently the Health Effects Institute (HEI) circulated a letter from the investigators at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health who conducted the National Morbidity, Mortality and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) on short-term effects of air pollution on health, in which they report a problem with the default convergence criteria in the S-PLUS GAM function they have been using. Applying more stringent convergence criteria resulted in reducing the mortality increase associated with an increase of 10 μg/m3 in PM10 concentrations from 0.44% to 0.22%. In this report questions were raised about the effect of this problem on the results of other similar studies. The European multicenter project Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach (APHEA), with objectives similar to the NMMAPS, has published results on particulate matter effects on total mortality in a recent issue of Epidemiology, 1 using the S-PLUS GAM function with default convergence criteria for some of the analyses. We have reanalyzed our data using more stringent convergence criteria as proposed by the Johns Hopkins Group (specifically, the max number of iterations was set to 1,000 and the difference of two successive coefficients to 10−14). We found that the change in the estimated effect was marginal. The estimated combined increases in mortality associated with an increase in 24-hour PM10 (particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter) and black smoke (BS) concentrations by + 10 μg/m3 were reduced by 4% and remain identical when reported with one significant digit; for PM10 the increase in mortality was 0.6% (95% confidence interval = 0.4%–0.8%) and for BS the increase was 0.6% (0.3%–0.8%). Tables showing individual city results using both the default and the more stringent convergence parameters are available with the electronic version of this letter at http://www.epidem.com. It appears, therefore, that the extent of the bias reported in the NMMAPS is not necessarily applicable in all studies that use the GAM function. The reasons may lie in differences concerning the smooth functions introduced in the model, the number of the degrees of freedom, the lag times considered, the way by which confounders have been adjusted, or the data patterns. Small changes in the model-derived estimates are expected under any change in the modeling procedure and are, in fact, trivial in comparison with differences among individual city estimates within each project. Optimization of model choice is a continuous procedure and the initiated collaboration between NMMAPS, APHEA and Canadian researchers will soon address further methodologic issues. Klea Katsouyanni Giota Touloumi Evangelia Samoli Alexandros Gryparis Yannis Monopolis Alain LeTertre Azedine Boumghar Giuseppe Rossi Denis Zmirou Ferran Ballester Hugh Ross Anderson Bogdan Wojtyniak Anna Paldy Rony Braunstein Juha Pekkanen Christian Schindler Joel Schwartz
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,001 | 0,002 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,007 | 0,012 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; les deux têtes enseignantes s’accordent sur ce qui est montré ici.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».