Spring Migration of Ruffs<i>Philomachus pugnax</i>in Fryslân: Estimates of Staging Duration Using Resighting Data
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
Seasonal bird migration involves long flights, but most time is actually spent at intermediate staging areas. The duration of stay at these sites can be evaluated with mark—recapture methods that employ day-to-day local encounters of individually marked birds. Estimates of staging duration are based on two probabilities: the immigration probability, the complement of a bird's seniority to an area, and the emigration probability, the complement of the staying probability. Estimating total staging duration from seniority and staying probabilities requires validation for resighting data and here we compare three data categories of Ruffs Philomachus pugnax passing through The Netherlands during northward migration: (1) newly colour-ringed, (2) previously colour-ringed and (3) radio-tagged Ruffs (recorded by automated receiving stations). Between 2004 and 2008, 4363 resighting histories and 95 telemetry recording histories were collected. As sample sizes for females were low, only data for males were analysed. Possible catching effects affecting estimates of staging duration were explored. Staying probability was estimated for all data. Seniority however, could not be estimated for newly marked Ruffs; the assumption of equal ‘capture’ probability for reverse-time models applied to estimate seniority is violated for seasonal resighting histories starting with a catching event. Therefore, estimates of total staging duration were based on resightings of previously colour-marked birds only. For radio-tagged birds a minimal staging duration (time between tagging and last recording) was calculated. Modelling indicated that newly colour-ringed birds had a higher staying probability than previously colour-ringed birds, but the difference translated to a prolonged staging duration in newly ringed birds of only 0.4–0.5 d, suggesting a very small catching effect. The minimal staging duration of radio-tagged birds validated estimates of staging duration for colour-ringed birds in 2007 but not in 2005. In 2005 a low resighting probability resulted in underestimates of staging duration. We conclude that (1) estimates of staying probability can be affected by catching although effects on staging duration might be small, and that (2) low resighting probabilities can lead to underestimates in staging duration. In our study previously ringed Ruffs resighted in 2006–08 yielded reliable estimates of staging duration as data had sufficiently high resighting probabilities. Average staging durations varied between 19 d in 2008 and 23 d in 2006.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».