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Enregistrement W2079446696 · doi:10.2118/1005-0014-jpt

Comments: Help Wanted

2005· article· en· W2079446696 sur OpenAlexaboutno aff
John Donnelly

Notice bibliographique

RevueJournal of Petroleum Technology · 2005
Typearticle
Langueen
DomaineEnergy
ThématiqueGlobal Energy and Sustainability Research
Établissements canadiensnon disponible
Organismes subventionnairesnon disponible
Mots-clésWorkforcePetroleum industryEconomic shortageConsolidation (business)BusinessLimitingCompetition (biology)Agency (philosophy)EconomicsGovernment (linguistics)Economic growthFinanceEngineering

Résumé

récupéré en direct d'OpenAlex

From Canada to Scotland to west Texas, there are reports of labor shortages when oil prices and demand forecasts suggest the need for an acceleration of E&P activity. This may be just short-term fluctuations in the job market, or it may be that the predictions of a dwindling supply of skilled professionals in the oil and gas industry are finally coming true. Of all the challenges the industry faces—geopolitical tension limiting opportunities, lack of decent prospects, poor public opinion, outdated rigs and equipment—some find forecasts of a skilled worker shortage the most foreboding. No matter how technologically savvy the industry has become, you cannot produce a sufficient amount of oil and gas, or at least not as much as the Intl. Energy Agency believes the world will need over the next several decades, without good workers. And human resources take time to develop, so companies may be fighting over the pool of available workers in the meantime. And in some regions, there are just fewer workers than there used to be, which is affecting numerous professions. The U.K. has 1 million fewer people in their twenties than a decade ago. That means the competition for skilled workers across all industry sectors will be fierce. The worker shortage in the oil industry goes back to the mid-1980s’ oil price crash. Layoffs were widespread, and people were discouraged from joining the industry. The consolidation of the workforce continued through the 1990s amid the wave of mergers and acquisitions, and younger people looked elsewhere for careers. The industry’s poor public image in some countries and the boom-and-bust nature of the business has not helped. Neither have predictions about whether global oil production has peaked or plateaued and has nowhere to go but down, regardless of whether those predictions are true. Even in regions where the industry is held in high esteem, who wants to join an industry that may be on its way out, particularly when so many other professions look so promising? There have been more than 1.1 million layoffs in the oil and gas industry since 1981, according to oil consultancy John S. Herold, and a severe personnel crunch will occur unless the industry takes drastic steps to reverse the “brain drain” occurring as older workers retire. Employment at 25 of the largest companies, including majors and independents, fell 4% last year, the 20th annual decline in the past 23 years, the consultancy says. Since 1999, the industry has eliminated 120,000 positions. Some of this represents efficiency. Private oil firms have been paying more attention to Wall Street, which favors lean companies. Last month at the biennial Offshore Europe conference, the Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce issued a report that contends that a shortage of key skills is the most important strategic threat to the industry’s future. “As an industry, we are beginning to feel the skills constraint,” Kieron McFadyen, Shell Exploration and Production Technical Vice President, said at the report’s release. “Industry costs are increasing and our workforce is being asked to cope with an ever demanding workload driven by increased activity levels.” The Chamber reported earlier this year that 80% of producers said they recently have attempted to hire staff, with two-thirds reporting difficulties in finding the right workers. Shortages are occurring across the industry, including managerial and technical positions, and specifically in the drilling, subsea, and reservoir sectors. But progress in meeting this obstacle is being made. SPE has embarked on programs to encourage young professionals and educate the public about energy, which will only improve the industry’s image. Several companies are generously supporting initiatives to strengthen ties with universities and enhance worker competency and knowledge. With global demand for hydrocarbons showing no signs of slowing down, the human resource challenge may rival any technical challenge the industry faces in the years ahead.

Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.

Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier

Prédiction machine sur la base complète

Imitation des enseignants

Ni prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.

score de la tête « metaresearch » (Codex)0,003
score de la tête « metaresearch » (Gemma)0,028
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cStatut de validation: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Catégories candidatesCharge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger)
Catégories consensuellesaucune
DomaineSignal candidat: aucune · Signal consensuel: aucune
Devis d'étudeSignal candidat: Sans objet · Signal consensuel: Sans objet
GenreSignal candidat: Commentaire · Signal consensuel: aucune
Score de désaccord entre enseignants0,571
Score d'incertitude au seuil0,611

Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)

CatégorieCodexGemma
Métarecherche0,0030,028
Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict)0,0010,001
Méta-épidémiologie (sens large)0,0010,001
Bibliométrie0,0010,001
Études des sciences et des technologies0,0060,001
Communication savante0,0050,005
Science ouverte0,0020,006
Intégrité de la recherche0,0090,008
Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger)0,5710,377

Scores machine (provisoires)

Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.

Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.

Tête enseignante Opus0,009
Tête enseignante GPT0,273
Écart entre enseignants0,264 · la distance entre les deux têtes enseignantes sur ce seul travail
Statut de validationscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle

Classification

machine, non validée

Prédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.

Devis d'étudeSans objet
Domainenon disponible
GenreCommentaire

Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».

En bref

Citations0
Publié2005
Routes d'admission1
Résumé présentoui

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