Political Learning as a Catalyst of Moderation: Lessons from Democratic Consolidation in Greece

Abstract Utilizing over 100 interviews conducted with Greek political and military elites, this article offers a refinement of the process of political learning, believed to contribute to democratic consolidation by modifying individuals' beliefs about political goals and the best means to achieve them. Using the Greek case as an empirical test, this study confirms the democratization literature's claim that elites learn from singular catastrophic events. It offers a refinement, however, of specific lessons and the related behavioural change. Moving beyond the main conclusions of that literature, the article argues that learning can arise in a variety of ways and from varied experiences. Inductive trial-and-error learning stimulated by success can also play a key role as can slow and cumulative learning, which results from the accumulation of both positive and negative lessons, and can proceed in a two-step process of instrumental learning first, followed by more principled learning later. Learning thus sometimes takes a tangled course: elites take tentative steps, implement small policy changes, observe the effects of their actions, and learn from them as lessons accumulate, interact and slowly reinforce each other. Finally, learning does not always guarantee moderation and the adoption of democratic attitudes, tactics, and policies. As the article illustrates, the political learning process is often best characterized as highly contingent and complex. Keywords: Greecedemocratic transitiondemocratic consolidationpolitical learning Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Kenneth Benoit, Linda Chen, Louis Collins, April Lidinsky, Betsy Lucal and Jonathan Swarts, and three anonymous reviewers of this journal who provided invaluable feedback, greatly improving this article. The author would also like to acknowledge the Office of International Programs, Indiana University Bloomington, and the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences at Indiana University South Bend for facilitating the presentation of this paper to the Research Committee on Armed Forces and Society and an Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. Notes 1. Dankwart Rustow, ‘Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model’, Comparative Politics, Vol. 2, No. 3 (1970), pp. 337–63. 2. Some of the seminal literature on this topic includes Mattei Dogan and John Higley (eds), Elites, Crises and the Origins of Regimes (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 1998); John Higley and Michael Burton, ‘Elite Settlements and the Taming of Politics’, Government and Opposition, Vol. 33, No. 1 (Winter 1998), pp. 98–115; Larry Diamond, Marc F. Platner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien (eds), Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Themes and Perspectives (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997); Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Democratic Transitions and Consolidation: Eastern Europe, Southern Europe and Latin America (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996); Alfred Stepan, ‘Democratic Opposition and Democratization Theory’, Government and Opposition, Vol. 32, No. 4 (1997), pp. 657–73; Felipe Agüero, Soldiers, Civilians, and Democracy: Post-Franco Spain in Comparative Perspective (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995); Richard P. Gunther, Nikiforos Diamandouros, and Hans-Jurgen Puhle (eds), The Politics of Democratic Consolidation: Southern Europe in Comparative Perspective (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1995); John Higley and Richard Gunther (eds), Elites and Democratic Consolidation in Latin America and Southern Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992); Scott Mainwaring, Guillermo O'Donnell, and J. Samuel Valenzuela (eds), Issues in Democratic Consolidation: The New South American Democracies in Comparative Perspective (Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press, 1992); and Geoffrey Pridham (ed.), Securing Democracy: Political Parties and Democratic Consolidation in Southern Europe (London: Routledge, 1990). 3. For this argument, see Karen L. Remmer, ‘New Theoretical Perspectives on Democratization’, Comparative Politics, Vol. 28, No. 1 (1995), pp. 103–22. 4. Nancy Bermeo, ‘Democracy and the Lessons of Dictatorship’, Comparative Politics, Vol. 24, No. 3 (1992), pp. 273–92. 5. Geoffrey Pridham, ‘Confining Conditions and Breaking with the Past: Historical Legacies and Political Learning in Transitions to Democracy’, Democratization, Vol. 7, No. 2 (2000), p. 37. 6. Thomas Birkland, Lessons of Disaster: Policy Change After Catastrophic Events (Washington DC: Georgetown University Press, 2006). 7. See, for example, Arend Lijphart, ‘Consociational Democracy’, World Politics, Vol. 21, No. 2 (1969), pp. 207–25; Bermeo (note 4); Jack S. Levy, ‘Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minefield’, International Organization, Vol. 48, No. 2 (1994), pp. 279–312; and Janice Gross Stein, ‘Political Learning by Doing: Gorbachev as Uncommitted Thinker and Motivated Learner’, International Organization, Vol. 48, No. 2 (1994), pp. 155–83. 8. Nancy Bermeo, ‘Rethinking Regime Change’, Comparative Politics, Vol. 22, No. 3 (1990), p. 372; and Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), p. 173. 9. See, for example, Bermeo, ibid. and ‘Democracy’ (note 4); Pridham (note 5). 10. One exception is Jongryn Mo, ‘Political Learning and Democratic Consolidation: Korean Industrial Relations, 1987–1992’, Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 29, No. 3 (June 1996), pp. 290–311. 11. Here I treat the actual transition to democracy as distinct from democratic consolidation, which is said to occur when a fledgling democracy becomes stable and is in little to no danger of reverting to authoritarianism. For a related but more demanding definition of democratic consolidation – one that includes democratic deepening, political institutionalization and regime performance as well as a commitment to the norms, rules, and institutions of the democratic regime – see Larry Diamond, Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999). Bermeo, ‘Democracy’ (note 4), p. 282; Mo (note 10), p. 291; and Pridham (note 5). 12. Bermeo, ‘Democracy’ (note 4), p. 273. 13. Ibid. (note 4), p. 282; Mo (note 10), p. 291; and Pridham (note 5). 14. Levy (note 7), p. 280. 15. I am grateful to an anonymous reviewer of this article for pointing out this important distinction. 16. For a fuller account of 20th century Greek politics, see George Th. Mavrogordatos, Stillborn Republic: Social Coalitions and Party Strategies in Greece, 1922–1936 (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1983); Keith R. Legg, Politics in Modern Greece (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1969); Contstantine Tsoukalas, The Greek Tragedy (Baltimore, MD: Penguin, 1969); Richard Clogg, A Short History of Modern Greece (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1986); A Concise History of Modern Greece (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Parties and Elections in Greece: The Search for Legitimacy (Durham, NC: Duke University Press, 1987); Thanos Veremis, The Military in Greek Politics from Independence to Democracy (Montreal: Black Rose Books, 1997); Nicos Mouzelis, Modern Greece: Facets of Underdevelopment (New York: Holmes & Meier, 1978); Yorgos A. Kourvetaris and Betty A. Dobratz, A Profile of Modern Greece: In Search of Identity (Oxford: Clarendon, 1987); John O. Iatrides (ed.), Greece in the 1940s: A Nation in Crisis (Hanover, NH: University of New England Press, 1981). 17. For a more detailed analysis of the process by which democratic consolidation was achieved in Greece, see Neovi M. Karakatsanis, The Politics of Elite Transformation: The Consolidation of Greek Democracy in Theoretical Perspective (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2001). 18. Facts on File (New York: Facts on File News Service) 1974, p. 735. 19. Ibid. 20. Michalis Spourdalakis, The Rise of the Greek Socialist Party (London: Routledge, 1988), p. 76. 21. Bermeo, ‘Democracy’ (note 4), p. 283. 22. Birkland (note 6), pp. 2–10. 23. George E. Marcus and Michael B. MacKuen, ‘Anxiety, Enthusiasm, and the Vote: The Emotional Underpinnings of Learning and Involvement During Presidential Campaigns’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 87, No. 3 (1993), pp. 675–76. 24. Birkland (note 6), p. 23. 25. Dimitris Parsalidis, ‘The Communist Party of Greece in the Struggle for Democratic Change’, World Marxist Review, Vol. 5, No. 1 (1962), p. 29. 26. Mikis Theodorakis, Journal of Resistance (New York: Coward, McCann and Geoghegan, 1973), p. 36. 27. Synaspismos deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 13 May 1994. 28. For this argument, see Neovi M. Karakatsanis, ‘Do Attitudes Matter? The Military and Democratic Consolidation in Greece’, Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 24, No. 2 (1997), 289–313. 29. Party leader of the ‘interior’ left, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 13 May 1994. 30. Greek Air Force officer, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 17 May 1994. 31. Bermeo, ‘Democracy’ (note 4), p. 275. 32. Nea Demokratia deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 4 December 1993. 33. Leading PASOK deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 28 April 1994. 34. Birkland (note 6), p. 159. 35. Center Union deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 9 December 1993. 36. Constantine Mitsotakis, unaired interview given to the Free Voice of Greece radio program, New York, during the dictatorship, late 1969. 37. Frank R. Baumgartner and Bryan D. Jones, Agendas and Instability in American Politics (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 1993), quoted in Birkland (note 6), p. 160. 38. ‘To Elleniko Kommounistiko Kinema apo to 1949 os to 1967’ [The Greek Communist Movement from 1949 to 1967], Kommounistike Theoria kai Politike: Periodiko tes K.E. tou K.K.E (es.) [Communist Theory and Politics: Periodical of the Central Committee of the KKE-int], Vol. 9 (February–March 1976), pp. 19, 20, 25. 39. Synaspismos deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 4 and 6 May 1994. 40. ‘To Elleniko Kommounistiko Kinema’ (note 38), pp. 7–11. 41. Synaspismos deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 20 June 1994. 42. Leading Eurocommunist deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 4 June 1994. 43. Synaspismos deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 13 May 1994. 44. ERE deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 9 December 1993. 45. Synaspismos deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 13 May 1994. 46. Center Union deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 19 November 1993. 47. Mitsotakis (note 36). 48. Quoted in Maurice Genevoix, The Greece of Karamanlis (London: Doric Publications, 1973), Appendix I. 49. Mitsotakis (note 36). 50. Gregory B. Weeks, ‘The “Lessons” of Dictatorship: Political Learning and the Military in Chile’, Bulletin of Latin American Research, Vol. 21, No. 3 (2002), p. 410. 51. Ibid., p. 401. It is interesting note that Greek interviewees did not indicate having undergone a similar learning process from international demonstration effects as did Chilean, Spanish, East European, and other elites. Even when asked directly during the interview process about international factors and their contribution to democratic consolidation and elite moderation in attitudes and behaviour, no important effects were identified or reported for the time period under study. One possible explanation for this may be the fact that Greece was one of the first ‘third wave’ transitions in the 1970s and thus stood to benefit less from lessons learned elsewhere. 52. Gregores Pharakos, ‘Banner of Struggle and Victory’, World Marxist Review, Vol. 12, No. 11 (1978), p. 32. 53. Kostas Koliyannis, ‘Leninism and the Experience of the Communist Party of Greece’, World Marxist Review, Vol. 13, No. 4 (1970), p. 52. Emphasis in original. 54. Richard Nadeau, Richard G. Niemi, and Timothy Amato, ‘Emotions, Issue Importance and Political Learning’, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 39, No. 3 (1995), p. 560. 55. Ibid., pp. 560–69. 56. Stephen W. Rousseas, ‘Memoire on the “Second Solution”', Journal of the Hellenic Diaspora, Vol. 2, No. 1 (1975), p. 33. 57. See Karakatsanis, Politics (note 17), p. 51. 58. Rousseas (note 56), p. 34. 59. Internal document of the exiled wing of the Center Union in Western Europe, ‘A report detailing the political situation in Western Europe some 45 days after the coup was launched’, Rousseas Archives, Butler Library, Columbia University, New York. 60. Pridham (note 5), p. 56. 61. Birkland (note 6), p. 178. 62. Stein (note 7), p. 182; and Levy (note 7), p. 304. 63. Pridham (note 5), pp. 47, 60. 64. Leading Eurocommunist deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 4 June 1994. 65. ‘To Elleniko Kommounistiko Kinema’ (note 38), pp. 7–11. 66. Ibid., pp. 9–10. 67. Synaspismos deputy, Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 13 May 1994. 68. Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 27 April 1994. 69. Alice H. Eagley and Shelly Chaiken, The Psychology of Attitudes (New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, 1993), pp. 193–202, quoted in Joe Soss, ‘Lessons of Welfare: Policy Design, Political Learning, and Political Action’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 93, No. 2 (1993), p. 372. 70. Soss (note 69), p. 372. 71. Carrie Rosefsky Wickham, ‘The Path to Moderation: Strategy and Learning in the Formation of Egypt's Wasat Party’, Comparative Politics, Vol. 36, No. 4 (2003/4), p. 205. Wickham discusses a similar phenomenon experienced by this extreme-right party (the WASAT) of Egypt. 72. Benjamin Barber, Strong Democracy: Participatory Politics for a New Age (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1984), pp. 265–6. 73. Prominent PASOK deputy who served in Karamanlis' 1974 ‘national unity government’, personal interview, Athens, Greece, 25 May 1994. 74. Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 25 May 1995. 75. Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 21 June 1994. 76. Bermeo, ‘Democracy’ (note 4), p. 278. 77. Stein (note 7), pp. 178–9; Levy (note 7), p. 284. 78. For a specific, electorally driven version of this argument, see Higley and Gunther (note 2). 79. Levy (note 7), p. 303. 80. Panos Dimitriou (ed.), He Diaspasis tou KKE [The split of the KKE] (Athens: N.p., N.d.), pp. 162–3. 81. EDA deputy, personal interview, Athens, Greece, 11 December 1993. 82. Quoted in C.M. Woodhouse, Karamanlis: The Restorer of Greek Democracy (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1982), p. 186. 83. Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 4 and 6 May 1994. 84. For a similar analysis of Gorbachev as a ‘willing learner,’ see Stein (note 7). 85. Paulos N. Tzermias, He Politike Skepse tou Konstantinou Karamanli: Mia Anichneuse [The Political Thought of Constantine Karamanlis: An Investigation] (Athens: Ellenike Euroekthotike, 1990), p. 81. 86. Quoted in Takis Lambrias, Ste Skia Enos Megalou: Meletontas 25 Chronia ton Karamanlis [In the Shadow of a Great One: 25 Years of Studying Karamanlis] (Athens: Morfotike Estia, 1989), p. 140. 87. Constantine Tsatsos, ‘Introduction’, in Maurice Genevoix, The Greece of Karamanlis (London: Doric Publications Ltd., 1973), p. 22. 88. Birkland (note 6), pp. 14, 21. 89. For a similar argument, see Levy (note 7), p. 303. 90. Van Coufoudakis, ‘The Democratic Transition to Socialism in Post-War Greece’, Modern Greek Studies Yearbook, Vol. 4 (1988), p. 17. 91. Personal interview, Athens, Greece, 24 March 1994. 92. For a fuller discussion of generational turnover in Greece, see Karakatsanis, Politics (note 17). As an anonymous reader pointed out, this discussion and the related processes of change also raise important questions regarding the interaction between elites and masses and the process whereby elites are replaced from below as learning takes place at the mass level. Despite the focus on elite learning in this article, it is important to emphasize that the few available public opinion surveys from this period indicate that a parallel process of attitudinal moderation took place at the mass level as well. For a discussion of such attitudinal change, see Panayote E. Dimitras, ‘Changes in Public Attitudes’, in Kevin Featherstone and Dimitrios K. Katsoudas (eds), Political Change in Greece: Before and After the Colonels (New York: St Martin's Press, 1987). 93. See also Birkland (note 6), pp. 171. Additional informationNotes on contributorsNeovi M. Karakatsanis Neovi M. Karakatsanis is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science, Indiana University South Bend, USA.

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