An Examination of Alarm System Deterrence and Rational Choice Theory: The Need to Increase Risk

Abstract A growing body of evidence is indicating that burglary prevention can be achieved through the strategic application of target hardening measures developed under rational choice theory. Many of these measures are supported by scientific research and include information suggesting that alarm systems act as a deterrent. However, the application of alarm systems as a stand-alone deterrent measure is only supported by rational choice theory if the risk of apprehension is increased. During the last decade, advances in technology have resulted in a significant change in the fundamental nature of burglary. Burglary is an increasingly profitable business, to which alarm systems may no longer pose a significant risk of apprehension. Complicating matters further, practices are being implemented by the alarm industry to reduce burden of false alarms on police services. I will, through literature review, and data analysis, examine two seemingly separate issues, the changing nature of burglary and false alarm verification. These issues will be inextricably linked and contrary to rational choice theory shown to be reducing the risk of apprehension resulting from alarm response. Additionally, it will be shown that the alarm industry's singular focus on alarms as a deterrent may be impairing the application of other effective situational security measures. The use of alarm systems as a stand-alone security strategy are being impacted negatively and more complex solutions are supported under rational choice theory. When combined as part of an overall security strategy including effective false alarm verification technology, alarm systems can play a vital role in increasing the risk of apprehension. KEYWORDS: Alarm systemsburglaryriskrewardrational choice theoryroutine activities theoryfalse alarmsdeterrence Notes 1. Eight of numerous alarm companies that dispatched calls to the Peel Regional Police Communications Centre in 1999/2000. 2. An extensive review of the CANASA website by the author has concluded that CANASA uses the term "security systems" to describe electronic intrusion detection systems only, more commonly known as alarm systems. 3. This sentence is written in past tense as Lee's work itself establishes a deterrent effect of burglar alarms. 4. The terms reward and gain are used to describe the benefit derived from the commission of a criminal act. 5. Typical household electronic goods cannot be stored in a safety deposit box and many objects are too small, valuable, or transient in use to engrave. 6. Telephone survey of six of the largest CANASA member alarm-monitoring stations in the Toronto area conducted June 23–July 1, 2001 for this thesis (two companies did not supply information). 7. Two officers averages ½ hour each per alarm call (Salt Lake City Police Department, 2000:2). 8. Patrol hours available to one officer per year were calculated at 1,624 (Salt Lake City, 2000). 9. Peel Alarm Coordinator, August 21, 2001. 10. Overland Park Alarm Coordinator, August 10, 2001. 11. For purposes of this argument, the assumption is made that burglars view private security response similarly to police response. 12. The delay in contacting the police is considered when measuring the time from which the central station receives an alarm signal to the time police are notified and therefore the time taken per ring does not need separate consideration for a response prior to contacting police. 13. Thirty seconds to verify the alarm and thirty seconds to call the police. 14. It would have been preferable to take a sample over several different months during a one-year period to eliminate possible seasonal factors such as vacation staffing levels at central stations or weather factors. This was not possible however; therefore the largest sample was collected. 15. See Appendix 1 for sample recording figures. 16. The deterrence effect if the equation result is smaller than 3 minutes or X < 3. If larger than 3 the deterrent effect will begin to diminish substantially. 17. xxxxx 18. At least one company, Chubb Security, offers an exterior alarm deactivation device for residential application that eliminates the entrance delay time. Exterior keypads are now common on automobile doors. 19. The cause of valid alarms is any justifiable reason why the police are required at the alarmed premises. The Peel Regional Police alarm coordinator has advised that although some causes other than burglary do exist these causes are rare and statistically insignificant. Valid alarms can therefore be considered as burglaries. 20. Comparison between Canadian and American data on burglaries is meaningful (CitationGannon, 2001:9). 21. This number reflects the average including the losses of $2,000,000 in one incident. With this one incident removed, the average commercial loss during 2000 is $4240. 22. A high risk of apprehension does not suggest an apprehension rate of 50% or more. Rather it only suggests a rate at which offenders would deem the offense becoming too risky. Research is needed to determine what that rate might be but it could be as low as or even lower than 10%. 23. Audible sirens are not a direct subject of study in this work. They do have significant potential in increasing capable guardianship. An alarm industry practice, however, is to install the siren inside the residence, potentially minimizing its impact. The potential of audible siren and strobe lights used to highlight a burglary in progress should be considered as a separate research topic. 24. Ideally, this survey should be done by way of a mail-out with a letter of support from the local police. 25. Data includes only totals for residential and commercial burglaries reported to police and excludes "other" data.

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