Quantifying lower tropospheric methane concentrations using near-IR and thermal IR satellite measurements: comparison to the GEOS-Chem model

Abstract. Evaluating surface fluxes of CH4 using total column data requires models to accurately account for the transport and chemistry of methane in the free-troposphere and stratosphere, thus reducing sensitivity to the underlying fluxes. Vertical profiles of methane have increased sensitivity to surface fluxes because lower tropospheric methane is more sensitive to surface fluxes than a total column. Resolving the free troposphere from the lower-troposphere also helps to evaluate the impact of transport and chemistry uncertainties on estimated surface fluxes. Here we demonstrate the potential for estimating lower tropospheric CH4 concentrations through the combination of free-tropospheric methane measurements from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and XCH4 (dry-mole air fraction of methane) from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite Thermal And Near Infrared for Carbon Observations (GOSAT TANSO, herein GOSAT for brevity). The mean precision of these estimates are calculated to be ~ 23 ppb for a monthly average on a 4 × 5 latitude/longitude degree grid making these data suitable for evaluating lower-tropospheric methane concentrations. Smoothing error is approximately 10 ppb or less. The accuracy is primarily determined by knowledge error of XCO2, used to estimate XCH4 from the GOSAT CH4/CO2 "proxy" retrieval. For example, we use different XCO2 fields to quantify XCH4 from the GOSAT CH4/CO2 retrieval, one from Carbontracker and another from the NASA Carbon Monitoring System, and find that differences of up to approximately 60 ppb are possible with a mean value of approximately 35 ppb or less for any given latitude for these lower-tropospheric methane estimates using these two different XCO2 distributions. We show that these lower-tropospheric concentrations are more directly sensitive to the underlying fluxes than a total column using the GEOS-Chem model. In particular, we compare these lower-tropospheric methane estimates with those from the GEOS-Chem model for July 2009 to determine if these data can capture methane enhancements associated with the high-latitude methane fluxes because both TES and GOSAT separately do not show much sensitivity to methane from these sources. We find that the spatial patterns and magnitude of lower tropospheric methane concentrations from GEOS-Chem over Northern European and Siberian wetland fluxes are consistent with these data but modeled concentrations are much larger than measured over Canadian wetland fluxes. Transport of methane significantly affects lower-tropospheric methane concentrations over S.E. Asia as both data and model show methane enhancements that are shifted away from their sources. A possible new finding is that there is no representation of a strong source between the Black and Caspian seas.

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