Development and validation of a predictive model of acute glucose response to exercise in individuals with type 2 diabetes
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
BACKGROUND: Our purpose was to develop and test a predictive model of the acute glucose response to exercise in individuals with type 2 diabetes. DESIGN AND METHODS: Data from three previous exercise studies (56 subjects, 488 exercise sessions) were combined and used as a development dataset. A mixed-effects Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) was used to select predictors among 12 potential predictors. Tests of the relative importance of each predictor were conducted using the Lindemann Merenda and Gold (LMG) algorithm. Model structure was tested using likelihood ratio tests. Model accuracy in the development dataset was assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation.Prospectively captured data (47 individuals, 436 sessions) was used as a test dataset. Model accuracy was calculated as the percentage of predictions within measurement error. Overall model utility was assessed as the number of subjects with ≤1 model error after the third exercise session. Model accuracy across individuals was assessed graphically. In a post-hoc analysis, a mixed-effects logistic regression tested the association of individuals' attributes with model error. RESULTS: Minutes since eating, a non-linear transformation of minutes since eating, post-prandial state, hemoglobin A1c, sulfonylurea status, age, and exercise session number were identified as novel predictors. Minutes since eating, its transformations, and hemoglobin A1c combined to account for 19.6% of the variance in glucose response. Sulfonylurea status, age, and exercise session each accounted for <1.0% of the variance. In the development dataset, a model with random slopes for pre-exercise glucose improved fit over a model with random intercepts only (likelihood ratio 34.5, p < 0.001). Cross-validated model accuracy was 83.3%.In the test dataset, overall accuracy was 80.2%. The model was more accurate in pre-prandial than postprandial exercise (83.6% vs. 74.5% accuracy respectively). 31/47 subjects had ≤1 model error after the third exercise session. Model error varied across individuals and was weakly associated with within-subject variability in pre-exercise glucose (Odds ratio 1.49, 95% Confidence interval 1.23-1.75). CONCLUSIONS: The preliminary development and test of a predictive model of acute glucose response to exercise is presented. Further work to improve this model is discussed.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,002 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».