How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change?
Pourquoi ce travail est dans la base
Une base qui oublie comment elle a trouvé un travail ne peut pas être vérifiée. Voici les voies qui ont admis celui-ci.
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
ABSTRACT Aim We describe and use a model, SHIFT, to estimate potential migration due to climate change over the next 100 years. Location Eastern United States. Methods Five species, currently confined to the eastern half of the United States and not extending into Canada, were used to assess migration potential: Diospyros virginiana (persimmon), Liquidambar styraciflua (sweetgum), Oxydendrum arboreum (sourwood), Pinus taeda (loblolly pine), and Quercus falcata var. falcata (southern red oak). SHIFT is a matrix simulation model using simple inverse power functions to provide a distance decay of seed dispersal and is driven primarily by the abundance of the species near the boundary, the forest density within and beyond the boundary, and the distance between cells. For each cell outside the current boundary, the model creates an estimate of the probability that each unoccupied cell will become colonized over a period of 100 years. SHIFT is a ‘fat‐tailed’ migration model that allows rare very long distance dispersal events and colonization could occur up to 500 km beyond the current distribution boundary. Model outputs were analysed using transects through sections showing relatively low and high colonization probabilities as a result of low and high densities of target trees (high source strength) as well as high densities of forest (high sink strength). We also assess migration potential for species by concentric rings around the current boundary. Results Model outputs show the generally limited nature of migration for all five species over 100 years. There is a relatively high probability of colonization within a zone of 10–20 km (depending on habitat quality and species abundance) from the current boundary, but a small probability of colonization where the distance from the current boundary exceeds about 20 km. Whether biologically plausible or not, rare very long distance migration events are not sufficient to rescue migration. Species abundance (the source strength of migration) near the range boundary carried relatively more influence than percentage forest cover (sink strength) in determining migration rates. Main conclusion The transect evaluation revealed the importance of abundance of the species near the boundary, indicating that rare species may have much more difficulty in unassisted northward migration due to climate change. The concentric rings analysis of the model outputs showed that only the first 10–20 km of area would have a reasonably high probability of colonization. Rare, long‐distance events permit colonization of remote outliers, but much more needs to be understood about the likelihood of these rare events to predict the frequency of outlier establishment.
Récupéré en direct depuis OpenAlex et désinversé. Les résumés ne sont pas conservés dans cette base de données : les index inversés représentent 8,6 Go des 9,3 Go de texte de la base, et le serveur dispose de 13 Go libres.
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle