The evolution and evaluation of dairy cattle models for predicting milk production: an agricultural model intercomparison and improvement project (AgMIP) for livestock
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Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The contemporary concern about anthropogenic release of greenhouse gas (GHG) into the environment and the contribution of livestock to this phenomenon have sparked animal scientists’ interest in predicting methane (CH4) emissions by ruminants. We contend that improving the adequacy of mathematical nutrition model estimates of production of meat and milk is a sine qua non condition to reliably determine ruminants’ worldwide contribution to GHG. Focusing on milk production, we address six basic nutrition models or feeding standards (mostly empirical systems) and five complex nutrition models (mostly mechanistic systems), describe their key characteristics, and highlight their similarities and differences. We also present derivative systems. We compiled a database of milk production information from 37 published studies from six regions of the world, totalling 173 data points: 19 for Africa, 45 for Asia, 16 for Europe, 12 for Latin America, 44 for North America and 37 for Oceania. Four models were used to predict milk production in lactating dairy cows, and the adequacy of their predictions was measured against the observed milk production from our database. Even though these mathematical nutrition models shared similar assumptions and calculations, they have different conceptual and structural foundations inherent to their intended purposes. A direct comparison among these models was further complicated by the different models requiring unique inputs that are very often not available, and the low reliability of the inputs prevents an unbiased assessment of the model predictions. Very few studies have collected the necessary information to run more mechanistic systems, and users have to rely on standard information to populate many model inputs. Study effect was a critical source of variation that limited our ability to conclusively evaluate the models’ applicability under different scenarios of production around the world. Only after study variation was removed from the database did the adequacy of the model predictions of milk production improved, but deficiencies still existed. On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that not all models were suitable for predicting milk production and that simpler systems might be more resilient to variations in studies and production conditions around the world. Improving the predictability of milk production by mathematical nutrition models is a prerequisite to further development of systems that can effectively and correctly estimate the contribution of ruminants to GHG emissions and their true share of the global warming event.
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Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,002 | 0,001 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découle