Investigating Over Critical Thresholds of Forest Megafires Danger Conditions in Europe Utilising the ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) has been established by the Joint Research Centre (JRC)\nand the Directorate General for Environment (DG ENV) of the European Commission (EC) to support the services\nin charge of the protection of forests against fires in the EU and neighbour countries, and also to provide the EC\nservices and the European Parliament with information on forest fires in Europe. Within its applications, EFFIS\nprovides current and forecast meteorological fire danger maps up to 6 days. Weather plays a key role in affecting\nwildfire occurrence and behaviour. Meteorological parameters can be used to derive meteorological fire weather\nindices that provide estimations of fire danger level at a given time over a specified area of interest. In this work,\nwe investigate the suitability of critical thresholds of fire danger to provide an early warning for megafires (fires >\n500 ha) over Europe.\nPast trends of fire danger are analysed computing daily fire danger from weather data taken from re-analysis\nfields for a period of 31 years (1980 to 2010). Re-analysis global data sets coming from the construction of\nhigh-quality climate records, which combine past observations collected from many different observing and\nmeasuring platforms, are capable of describing how Fire Danger Indices have evolved over time at a global\nscale. The latest and most updated ERA-Interim dataset of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather\nForecast (ECMWF) was used to extract meteorological variables needed to compute daily values of the Canadian\nFire Weather Index (CFWI) over Europe, with a horizontal resolution of about 75x75 km. Daily time series of\nCFWI were constructed and analysed over a total of 1,071 European NUTS3 centroids, resulting in a set of\npercentiles and critical thresholds. Such percentiles could be used as thresholds to help fire services establish a\nmeasure of the significance of CFWI outputs as they relate to levels of fire potential, fuel conditions and fire danger.\nMedian percentile values of fire days accumulated over the 31-year period were compared to median val-\nues of all days from that period. As expected, the CWFI time series exhibit different values on fire days than on\nall days. In addition, a percentile analysis was performed in order to determine the behaviour of index values\ncorresponding to fire events falling into the megafire category. This analysis resulted in a set of critical thresholds\nbased on percentiles. By utilising such thresholds, an initial framework of an early warning system has being\nestablished. By lowering the value of any of these thresholds, the number of hits could be increased until all\nextremes were captured (resulting in zero misses). However, in doing so, the number of false alarms tends to\nincrease significantly. Consequently, an optimal trade-off between hits and false alarms has to be established when\nsetting different (critical) CFWI thresholds.
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction distillée sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Apprise à partir de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et de 10 348 étiquettes directes de Gemma. Le mode candidate est l'union des têtes enseignantes seuillées; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont ni des étiquettes humaines ni des étiquettes directes de modèles de pointe.
Scores Codex et Gemma par catégorie
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,007 | 0,009 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,000 | 0,000 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,000 | 0,001 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,002 | 0,001 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule tête enseignante, pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».