The Concerted Effort to Fight Climate Change: Towards a Fair Arrangement for Southern Countries to Become Partners in the Post-2012 Commitments?

In 1992, Rio, the industrialised countries (grouped as Parties included Annex 1), conscious of their historic responsibility for the growing concentration of green- house gases (GHGs) the atmosphere, agreed to take the initiative the battle to counter the greenhouse effect. Under the aegis of the United Nations Framework Conven- tion on Climate Change (UNFCCC), they committed them- selves to stabilise, by around 2000, their GHG emissions at 1990 levels. In 1997, they decided to go further by adopting the Kyoto Protocol((1) and committing themselves to legally binding targets: by 2008-2012, they have to reduce their GHG emissions by an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels. This is the first of the five-year targets. According to the In- tergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Pro- tocol's targets are not ambitious enough to reverse the process whereby GHGs are growingly concentrated the at- mosphere((2). They are sufficient only to slow this process down((3). This slowing down must be seen relation to the requirements of the Convention's ultimate objective, which is the stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations the at- mosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthro- pogenic interference with the climate system((4).The experts consider that it is necessary first to impose a ceiling on GHG concentration and then to reduce it so that, by around 2050, global temperatures would be held at a level no more than 2°C higher than the pre-industrial period. This would assume that global emissions be halved by that date and that the devel- oped countries reduce theirs by three-quarters((5).To succeed, the industrialised countries would have to agree, by the second target period of the Kyoto Protocol (2013- 2017), to reduce their emissions far more drastically than they are committed to do during the first period (2008- 2012). But a still greater challenge for the post-2012 negoti- ations to confront is the determined opposition by southern countries, particularly China and India, hitherto exempt from targets, to subscribe their turn to commitments on limiting their emissions. In the absence of climate control policies (and according to IPCC forecasts), emissions from the devel- oping countries will by themselves equal or exceed, over this century, the world total of emissions, rendering ineffective any preventive action limited to the industrialised countries.Montreal: t he debate opens on post-2012 obligationsThe Montreal Conference (December 2005) was an oppor- tunity for governments to officially open discussions on how, after 2012, they should reduce emissions((6). In fact, the Pro- tocol includes two articles, Article 3.9 and Article 9, requir- ing that the process for discussion on post-2012 should begin by 2005 at the latest, the deadline having been fixed with the adop- tion of the Montreal Action Plan (MAP), setting out three stages for opening the negotiations.The first stage, according to Article 3.9, is to adopt a process leading to the definition of new commitments by the industri- alised countries, the Parties to Annex 1/B (PA1/B). The task at Montreal was to determine which negotiating mechanism to favour (workshop, say, or working group) and to create a timetable for the work, including a deadline for industrialised countries to adopt new targets((7).The second stage, based on Article 9, proposes a complete re- view of the Protocol (co-ordinated with the reviews under the Convention required by Article 4.2.d) in the light of the best available scientific information and assessments on climate change and its impacts, as well as relevant technical, social and economic information. This reassessment((8) must include an evaluation of the level of effort accepted by all Parties as well as establishing the availability of technical and financial support for the developing countries. Progress should be made towards a de- cision that will intensify the commitments of the industrialised countries and, at the same time, widen the participation of the developing countries. …

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