The Aurora Programme for the Human Exploration of the Solar System
Notice bibliographique
Résumé
The Aurora Programme of the European Space Agency is conceived to prepare the human exploration of the Solar System by building up the necessary know-how and capabilities stepwise through a series of robotic missions. The programme is a so-called envelope programme, which proceeds in five-year periods. Its main components are the long-term plan, robotic missions and technology. The long-term plan describes the long-term goal of the programme, which is the human exploration of Mars, and it constitutes the framework for the near-term planning of robotic missions. Within the framework of the Long Term Plan a sequence of robotic missions is planned such that the know how and the capabilities necessary for a first human mission are gradually build up. A still more detailed plan is being prepared for the following five-year period of the programme in which the first missions will be realised. Presently Phase A studies are carried out for an exobiology mission to Mars and a Mars sample return mission. Especially in support of the sample return two smaller technological missions are under study: a re-entry capsule demonstrator mission and an aerocapture demonstrator mission. In parallel to the Long Term Plan and the robotic mission studies, technology work is undertaken. It builds on the technology available in Europe and on the one hand aims at preparing for the capabilities in the long term and on the other hands supports the development of the short-term robotic missions. INTRODUCTION Certainly we will see a manned mission to Mars in the first half of this century. Very likely this will be an international endeavour led by the nations, which will have developed the needed technologies and expertise to master the multitude of challenges posed by the landing of humans on Mars and returning safely to the Earth. Europe has been involved in space missions since 30 years with many successes and key contributions to international projects. The experience ranges from the participation in the International Space Station and the knowledge acquired by the European Astronauts via prime scientific missions to the recently launched Mars Express with its Beagle 2 Lander. All these examples show the wide range of competence that Europe, through the European Space Agency (ESA) and its Member States, has gained by its investment in space activities. Reaching Mars is a dangerous undertaking as the low rate of success of robotic missions clearly demonstrates. Less than 1/3 of the unmanned missions launched to Mars until now have achieved their objectives. This shows clearly that much is left to be done before one can engage on sending humans to explore the Universe and land on Mars. The Aurora Programme of the European Space Agency aims at preparing Europe for this major challenge so that it can play a significant role in a future international Mars Programme. In order to achieve this goal a Long Term Plan is being prepared and will be implemented subsequently. This plan describes the necessary activities for robotic and human exploration of the Solar System. It addresses key capabilities and knowledge to be acquired and proposes first robotic and then human missions, which will demonstrate the capabilities and help to acquire the necessary knowledge. PROGRAMMATICS Initially, in order to give the future programme a sound scientific basis and appealing objectives, a Call for Ideas for Planetary Exploration was published in 2001 addressing scientists in Europe and Canada. The response of scientists showed a great interest in the exploration of Mars and came from almost all ESA Member States and Canada. Some 300 proposals were received. A high-level panel of scientists assessed them and the results were presented at a dedicated workshop in ESTEC in April 2001. This then gave rise to the preparation of a programme proposal to the ESA Member States. The Aurora Programme was approved as an Optional Programme at the Edinburgh Council at Ministerial Level in November 2001. The programme is of the envelope type, which means it proceeds in five-year periods. The major ESA Member States have subscribed the Programme and its Preparatory Period, which started in January 2002. This Preparatory Period will last until the end of 2004, when an up-dated Programme Declaration and a comprehensive long-term plan, the European Framework for Exploration (EFE), will be presented, together with a detailed plan of activities Space 2003 23 25 September 2003, Long Beach, California AIAA 2003-6236 Copyright © 2003 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved. 2 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics for the following five-year period, for approval. The EFE will be a living document, which will be updated as the Aurora Programme and the activities connected to it move along. Like all other ESA Programmes, Aurora has a Programme Board (the Aurora Board of Participants, ABP, representing the participating Member States) and an Exploration Programme Advisory Committee (EPAC), which includes, in a balanced manner, European experts in the different scientific and technological fields of interest for the programme. For a clearly defined goal – safely land humans on Mars by 2030 – Aurora will define the necessary technologies to develop and the required knowledge to gather. A series of space missions, technology developments and other scientific work shall provide the answers and create the basis for a European participation in a future international Mars programme. After the Preparatory Period the Programme will proceed in five-year periods with the first one due to start in 2005, subject of a positive decision by the Participating States. Each Period will consist of a Definition Component and a Development Component. The Definition Component represents the programmatic and forward-looking part of the Programme, while the Development Component covers the work on the identified technologies and their demonstration through missions. It also comprises research to acquire the necessary knowledge. The Preparatory Period includes only a Definition Component. g Approval 2nd Period Programme Review Approval 3rd Period Programme Review 2002 2005 2010 Development Component Definition Component Definition Component Dev. Comp. Def. Comp. A la carte missions Commitment Preparatory Period Programmatic Approach
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Comment cette classification a été obtenuedéplier
Prédiction machine sur la base complète
Imitation des enseignantsNi prévalence calibrée, ni vérité terrain. Validation humaine à venir. Le volet Gemma est une étiquette directe du modèle pour chaque travail de la base, lue sur la notice réduite au titre. Le volet Codex est un classifieur appris des 10 348 étiquettes directes de Codex et calibré sur les taux pondérés de l'échantillon; les champs sans appui suffisant ne portent aucun appel Codex. Le mode candidate est l'union des deux volets; le consensus est leur intersection. Ces sorties portent le statut machine_predicted_unvalidated et ne sont pas des étiquettes humaines.
Scores du classifieur distillé par catégorie (deux têtes)
| Catégorie | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Métarecherche | 0,004 | 0,002 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens strict) | 0,001 | 0,000 |
| Méta-épidémiologie (sens large) | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Bibliométrie | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Études des sciences et des technologies | 0,001 | 0,001 |
| Communication savante | 0,004 | 0,001 |
| Science ouverte | 0,001 | 0,004 |
| Intégrité de la recherche | 0,002 | 0,002 |
| Charge utile insuffisante (le modèle a refusé de juger) | 0,099 | 0,054 |
Scores machine (provisoires)
Les deux têtes enseignantes du modèle étudiant, lues sur ce travail. Un score ordonne la base pour la relecture; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie, et le statut de validation accompagne chaque rangée tel quel.
Scores de référence d'un modèle non mature (critères de maturité non atteints, 7 itérations). Un score ordonne; il n'affirme jamais une catégorie.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · tel quel depuis la passe de notation : score_only signifie que le nombre peut ordonner les travaux, et qu'aucune étiquette de catégorie n'en découleClassification
machine, non validéePrédiction automatique; un appel candidat d’une seule source (Gemma direct ou Codex distillé), pas un consensus.
Le détail, modèle par modèle et score par score, se trouve en fin de page sous « Comment cette classification a été obtenue ».